Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Decline [1] - Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide - range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [1][3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views - The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with the production of building materials slightly decreasing, inventory slightly decreasing, and apparent demand falling. The market has mixed expectations for anti - involution policy implementation, and the short - term steel futures may oscillate [1]. - For iron ore, supply has slightly increased, demand has decreased, and with the digestion of the "anti - involution" sentiment and concerns about military parade production restrictions, the short - term price is expected to decline [1]. - Coking coal supply is increasing, while coking enterprises are in production losses but still have a high enthusiasm for raw material procurement. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Coke production is facing cost transfer pressure, and the game between steel mills and upstream is intense. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon has strong cost support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely, and market sentiment should be monitored [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon production profit has improved, demand has increased, and cost has support. The short - term futures are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [3]. Group 3: Summary of Daily Data Monitoring Contract Spreads - Steel: The 10 - 1 spread of rebar is - 56.0 (down 19.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 22.0 (down 7.0); the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil is - 12.0 (down 8.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 2.0 (down 9.0) [4]. - Iron ore: The 9 - 1 spread is 23.0 (down 4.5), and the 1 - 5 spread is 20.5 (down 1.0) [4]. - Coke: The 9 - 1 spread is - 63.5 (down 6.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 52.5 (up 3.5) [4]. - Coking coal: The 9 - 1 spread is - 115.5 (down 21.5), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 34.0 (down 7.5) [4]. - Manganese silicon: The 9 - 1 spread is - 92.0 (down 18.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 30.0 (down 10.0) [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The 9 - 1 spread is - 132.0 (down 26.0), and the 1 - 5 spread is - 20.0 (down 6.0) [4]. Basis - Steel: The basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 125.0 (up 42.0), and that of the 01 - contract is 69.0 (up 23.0); the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil is 17.0 (up 30.0), and that of the 01 - contract is 5.0 (up 22.0) [4]. - Iron ore: The basis of the 09 - contract is 30.2 (down 0.9), and that of the 01 - contract is 53.2 (down 5.4) [4]. - Coke: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 98.0 (down 10.9), and that of the 01 - contract is - 161.5 (down 16.9) [4]. - Coking coal: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 79.0 (up 3.5), and that of the 01 - contract is - 194.5 (down 18.0) [4]. - Manganese silicon: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 316.0 (up 96.0), and that of the 01 - contract is - 408.0 (up 78.0) [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The basis of the 09 - contract is - 258.0 (up 202.0), and that of the 01 - contract is - 390.0 (up 176.0) [4]. Spot Prices - Steel: The spot price of rebar in Shanghai is 3440.0 (up 10.0), in Beijing is 3340.0 (unchanged), and in Guangzhou is 3480.0 (up 30.0); the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is 3500.0 (up 10.0), in Tianjin is 3500.0 (up 30.0), and in Guangzhou is 3610.0 (unchanged) [4]. - Iron ore: The spot price of PB powder in Rizhao Port is 772.0 (down 9), and that of Super Special powder is 647.0 (down 10) [4]. - Coke: The spot price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1420.0 (up 30.0) [4]. - Coking coal: The spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi is 1230.0 (unchanged) [4]. - Manganese silicon: The spot price in Ningxia is 6000.0 (up 150.0), in Inner Mongolia is 5800.0 (unchanged), and in Guangxi is 5850.0 (unchanged) [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The spot price in Ningxia is 5700.0 (up 150.0), in Inner Mongolia is 5650.0 (up 100.0), and in Qinghai is 5700.0 (up 150.0) [4]. Other Data - Rebar: The rebar futures profit is 131.9 (down 38.9), the long - process profit is 252.4 (up 24.3), and the short - process profit is 148.5 (unchanged) [4]. - Spread data: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 168.0 (up 12.0), the ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.2 (up 0.01), the ratio of coke to iron ore is 2.1 (up 0.08), the ratio of coking coal to iron ore is 1.5 (up 0.04), the ratio of rebar to coke is 2.0 (down 0.07), and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is - 108.0 (down 6.00) [4]. Group 4: Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report provides historical price charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon main contracts from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows historical basis charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon main contracts [16][17][18][20][22]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report presents historical spread charts of different contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [24][26][31][32][35][37]. 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads - The report includes charts of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to iron ore, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon [39][40][42][44]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - The report provides charts of the rebar main - contract futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [43][45][49]. Group 5: Research Team Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [51]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, is a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [51]. - Liu Xi, a black researcher at Everbright Futures, is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at Everbright Futures, has experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [52].
黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 31 日）-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-31 04:05