银河证券每日晨报-20250731

Key Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery while addressing prominent issues such as boosting consumption and breaking the cycle of internal competition, which is crucial for promoting domestic and international dual circulation [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of accelerating the cultivation of emerging pillar industries and advancing urban renewal with high quality, avoiding the old path of debt-driven growth [2][3] - The upcoming 14th Central Committee meeting in October will focus on drafting the "15th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to play a significant role in achieving the long-term goal of modernizing socialism in China [2][11] Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting acknowledged the positive performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with GDP growth reaching 5.3%, and emphasized the need for a flexible and proactive macroeconomic policy to sustain growth [3][18] - The focus will be on maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in policy adjustments to stimulate economic growth [13][20] - The meeting indicated that there is still room for interest rate cuts, with expectations of 1-2 rate reductions in the second half of the year [5][20] Real Estate Sector - The importance of urban renewal was reiterated, with a focus on high-quality implementation to enhance living conditions and promote sustainable urban development [26][28] - The shift in urbanization from rapid expansion to stable development is expected to create opportunities for urban renewal projects, particularly in the context of improving living conditions in urban villages [27][28] - The meeting's emphasis on urban renewal is likely to support the recovery of the real estate sector, with leading companies benefiting from lower financing costs and high market share in core areas [28] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend amid policy support and economic recovery, with a focus on sectors such as technology, consumption, and cyclical stocks [16][31] - The market is anticipated to experience structural differentiation, driven by mid-year performance reports and policy expectations [31][32] - The emphasis on anti-involution policies is expected to optimize supply-demand dynamics across industries, reinforcing the market's long-term upward trajectory [16][31] Debt Market Analysis - The meeting's conclusions suggest a neutral impact on the bond market, with expectations of short-term interest rates trending downward [18][23] - The focus will be on observing changes in risk appetite and the dynamics between equity and debt markets, particularly in light of government debt supply peaks in the second half of the year [18][23] - Historical trends indicate a higher probability of a decline in 10-year government bond yields in the days following the meeting [23]