光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 31 日）-20250731

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton decreased by 0.25% to 67.5 cents per pound on Wednesday, and the CF509 dropped by 1.89% to 13,755 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 37,728 lots to 375,900 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,343 yuan per ton, down 88 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan. Internationally, the market focus is on the macro - level. After the Fed's July FOMC meeting, the probability of a September rate cut dropped below 50%, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and U.S. cotton prices were under pressure. Domestically, the 09 contract is reducing positions and declining, and the 9 - 1 spread is narrowing. Considering the low commercial cotton inventory and the macro - sentiment, there may not be much downside for the 09 contract. For the 01 contract, pay attention to the Sino - U.S. negotiation results, and the short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The overall view is oscillating and slightly bearish [1]. - For sugar, the spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were stable, and some processing sugar mills lowered their prices by 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar market is centered around Brazil's crushing progress without a clear direction. The domestic futures market is in the process of position transfer. The September contract is under pressure and has returned to around 5,800 points. The January contract has slightly stronger support due to the expected delayed start of the crushing season. The view is oscillating, and there is still a small upward space for the 9 - 1 spread [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 spread was - 150 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,715 yuan, up 60 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,343 yuan per ton, down 88 yuan, and the national price was 15,470 yuan per ton, down 110 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 spread was 130 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis was 271 yuan, up 63 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou price was 6,075 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. 2. Market Information - On July 30, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,055, down 101 from the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,343 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,512 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,468 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,610 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3]. - On July 30, the yarn comprehensive load was 49.3, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 29.6, up 0.1. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 47.8, unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 33.5, up 0.1 [3]. - On July 30, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 6,050 yuan per ton and 6,075 yuan per ton respectively, unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 19,520, down 226 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts including those for cotton (e.g., main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, China Cotton Price Index) and sugar (e.g., main contract closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17].