Research Views Copper - Overnight, LME copper oscillated weakly, dropping 0.74% to $9,730/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.47% to 78,700 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remains in a loss state [1]. - The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, better than the expected 2.6%, but the PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3% and significantly lower than the previous value of 3.5%. The US added 104,000 ADP jobs in July, better than the expected 76,000 and the previous value of -33,000. The employment resilience and rising inflation make the Fed more cautious in monetary policy. The Fed's interest - rate meeting last night kept rates unchanged, and Powell did not give a clear indication of a September rate cut, emphasizing inflation risks and solid employment, which suppressed the expectation of a rate cut this year, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to soar [1]. - Domestically, important meetings pointed out that macro - policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, effectively release domestic demand potential, and continuously prevent and resolve risks in key areas [1]. - In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons to 136,850 tons; Comex inventory increased by 2,283 tons to 232,194 tons; SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons; BC copper warrants remained at 3,313 tons [1]. - Affected by the off - season, consumption remains weak. Recently, macro factors have a weak impact. The Fed suppresses the rate - cut expectation, the domestic situation stabilizes, and Trump does not impose additional tariffs on refined copper. The US dollar rebounds, and US copper prices fall, driving copper prices down. Although the impact on LME and Shanghai copper is relatively weak, from the perspective of the recent inventory build - up in three locations, the fundamental support is also quite weak. Therefore, copper is temporarily regarded as weak, and attention should be paid to whether new factors will emerge [1]. Aluminum - Alumina oscillated weakly. Overnight, AO2509 closed at 3,278 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.38%, and the open interest increased by 5,266 lots to 154,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly. Overnight, AL2509 closed at 20,615 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.02%, and the open interest decreased by 105 lots to 261,000 lots. Aluminum alloy oscillated weakly. Overnight, the main contract AD2511 closed at 20,025 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.05%, and the open interest decreased by 62 lots to 8,788 lots [1][2]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded to 3,248 yuan/ton. The spot price of aluminum ingots continued to be flat, and the quotation fell to 20,660 yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 yuan/ton to Wuxi. The Foshan A00 aluminum reported at par. The processing fees of aluminum rods in many places remained stable, and the processing fee of 1A60 aluminum rods in Wuxi decreased by 20 yuan/ton; the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods remained stable [2]. - Due to the rainy season in Guinea, the export of bauxite has started to decline. Although the domestic short - term bauxite reserves are relatively sufficient, the cost support is obvious. Coupled with the intensification of anti - involution policies, the spot - futures arbitrage window for alumina has opened, and there is still a certain risk of a short squeeze under low warrants. Attention should be paid to the Guinea general election. If the bauxite export policy is tightened, it may strengthen the logic of mine - end disturbances [2]. - The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum has gradually changed, leading to a smooth inventory build - up of aluminum ingots. After the spot premium gradually flattened, the aluminum price started to oscillate in a narrow range, waiting for new guidance. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting. If the rate cut exceeds expectations, it will form a new upward pull point. Currently, aluminum alloy lacks an independent driving force, and there is still room for long - position trading when the AD - AL spread corrects [2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.57% to $15,085/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.9% to 120,920 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, LME inventory increased by 208,092 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 3,180 tons to 21,759 tons [2]. - In terms of premiums, the LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative; the premium of imported nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton. During the week, the domestic trade price of nickel ore decreased slightly, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained stable, and that of the Philippines decreased slightly; the center of the nickel - iron transaction price moved up to 920 yuan/nickel point; battery - grade nickel sulfate increased during the week, the MHP coefficient remained stable, and the high - grade nickel matte coefficient remained stable [2]. - In the stainless - steel sector, the raw - material prices showed differentiation. The slowdown in production and the rising prices led to a slight decline in inventory on a month - on - month basis. In terms of primary nickel, the domestic weekly inventory decreased slightly. Overall, in the short term, the prices of nickel and stainless steel were affected by market sentiment and weakened. The fundamentals changed little, with support from the prices of nickel - iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above, and the prices continued to oscillate [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - The price of flat - water copper increased by 260 yuan/ton to 79,270 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 53 yuan/ton to 405 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of oxygen - free copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 79,700 yuan/ton, and the price of low - oxygen copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 77,600 yuan/ton [3]. - The rough smelting TC remained unchanged at - 43 dollars/ton [3]. - LME copper inventory increased by 9,225 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 2,370 tons to 229,909 tons, SHFE copper warrants increased by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 11,133 tons to 73,423 tons on a weekly basis. The social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.1 million tons to 19.6 million tons [3]. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton to - 49.8 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton to 58 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 93.6 yuan/ton to - 396.1 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River spot market decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of lead concentrates at the factory in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu all decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the processing fees remained unchanged [3]. - LME lead inventory increased by 6,025 tons to 276,375 tons, SHFE lead warrants increased by 1,002 tons to 61,934 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 919 tons to 63,254 tons [3]. - The 3 - cash premium was - 7.2 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price was 105 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss increased by 65 yuan/ton to - 595 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - The Wuxi aluminum price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 20,660 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai aluminum price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 20,660 yuan/ton. The Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 30 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of Shanxi low - grade and high - grade bauxite remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton and 640 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price of alumina remained unchanged at 380 dollars/ton, the price of Shandong alumina increased by 5 yuan/ton to 3,215 yuan/ton, and the domestic - foreign price difference of alumina increased by 5 yuan/ton to 190 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of pre - baked anodes remained unchanged at 6,322 yuan/ton. The processing fees of 6063 aluminum (φ90) in Guangdong and 1A60 aluminum rods in Guangdong remained unchanged at 270 yuan/ton and 450 yuan/ton respectively. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton [4]. - LME aluminum inventory increased by 4,250 tons to 460,350 tons, SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 1,857 tons to 51,217 tons, and the weekly total inventory increased by 6,968 tons to 115,790 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 0 million tons, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 1.2 million tons to 5.8 million tons [4]. - The 3 - cash premium was - 49.65 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price was 112.5 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 1449 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel - The price of Jinchuan nickel plates increased by 600 yuan/ton to 124,150 yuan/ton, the Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, and the 1 imported nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by 100 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [4]. - The price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained unchanged at 3,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron (10 - 15%) remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port and 1.8% nickel ore at Lianyungang remained unchanged at 465 yuan/ton and 658 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The prices of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,400 yuan/ton, the price of 304/2B coil (matte) in Wuxi increased by 100 yuan/ton to 13,000 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B coil (matte) in Foshan increased by 100 yuan/ton to 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of battery - grade nickel sulfate (≥22%) and 523 - type and 622 - type nickel - cobalt - manganese decreased by 300 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton, and 2,000 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - LME nickel inventory increased by 3,180 tons to 208,092 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 121 tons to 21,759 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 174 tons to 25,451 tons. The social inventory of nickel decreased by 57 tons to 40,281 tons [4]. - The 3 - cash premium was - 228 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading price was 85 dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 1214 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.1% to 22,690 yuan/ton, the LmeS3 price remained unchanged at $2,505.5/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly to 9.06 [5]. - The near - far month spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton, the average domestic spot premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average imported zinc premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [5]. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 dollars/ton to 2.5 dollars/ton. The prices of zinc alloy Zamak3 and Zamak5 increased by 110 yuan/ton to 23,305 yuan/ton and 23,855 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 21,700 yuan/ton [5]. - The weekly TC of domestic Zn50% zinc concentrate and imported Zn50% zinc concentrate remained unchanged at 3,850 yuan/metal ton and 240 dollars/dry ton respectively [5]. - SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,100 tons to 109,050 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons to 8.36 million tons [5]. - SHFE registered warrants decreased by 75 tons to 15,232 tons, and LME registered warrants remained unchanged at 57,600 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased by 1,832 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [5]. Tin - The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.1% to 267,740 yuan/ton, the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1% to $27,540/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 9.72 [5]. - The near - far month spread increased by 150 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton, the SMM spot price increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 268,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by 2,300 yuan/metal ton to 260,800 yuan/metal ton and 256,800 yuan/metal ton respectively [5]. - The average domestic spot premium remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 30.5 dollars/ton to 10.5 dollars/ton [5]. - SHFE tin inventory increased by 269 tons to 7,417 tons, LME tin inventory increased by 90 tons to 1,945 tons. SHFE registered warrants decreased by 96 tons to 7,433 tons, and LME registered warrants increased by 15 tons to 1,365 tons. The active - contract import loss decreased by 24,191 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the tariff was 3% [5]. Chart Analysis Spot Premiums - Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][9][11]. SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads - Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [12][14][16][17]. LME Inventory - Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [18][20][22][24]. SHFE Inventory - Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2
有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 31 日）-20250731
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-31 04:16