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固收周报:政治局会议前瞻:“稳增长”与“调结构”-20250731
Yong Xing Zheng Quan·2025-07-31 04:42

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Interest Rate Bonds: From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank funds and exchange funds rose. The primary market of interest rate bonds had a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, and the term spreads widened [1][15][33]. - Credit Bonds: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with a net financing of - 247.824 billion yuan. The yields of credit bonds, including urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes, increased overall. One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during the week [2][58][60]. - Major Asset Weekly Observation: During July 18 - July 25, 2025, most European and American stock indexes rose. The yields of US Treasury bonds were differentiated. The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies strengthened. Crude oil and gold prices declined [3][62][72]. 3. Investment Recommendations The July Politburo meeting is expected to focus on the dual main lines of "stable growth" and "structural adjustment": - Stable Growth and Domestic Demand Expansion: The economic growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, providing room for the annual target of 5%. In the second half, the pressure of stable growth is relatively controllable. The key is to give full play to the effectiveness of existing policies and appropriately introduce incremental policies [4][76]. - Structural Adjustment: Measures such as rectifying local protectionism and improving the market access and exit mechanism are expected to be detailed. The ten - industry stable growth plans announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are expected to be implemented intensively [4][77]. - Real Estate Market: Multi - dimensional measures may be taken on both the supply and demand sides. The supply side will clarify the standards for "good houses", and the demand side may relax the purchase threshold [77]. - Capital Market: Long - term funds are encouraged to enter the market. The delisting system of listed companies will be improved, and supervision will be strengthened [78]. - Livelihood Field: Stable employment is the core. New employment opportunities will be created through "two new and two important" projects [79]. - Stabilizing Foreign Investment and Expanding Opening - up: Policies will focus on stabilizing foreign investment and expanding opening - up in parallel to cope with the pressure of tariff reconstruction [79]. - Medium - and Long - Term Layout: The meeting may announce the time of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and review the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, with new productive forces as the strategic focus [79]. Investors should pay attention to the main lines of consumer service, new impetus for infrastructure, industrial upgrading, and capital market reform, and be vigilant against external tariff shocks. For the bond market, it is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy, adjust the duration flexibly, and seize trading opportunities [4][80]. 4. Summary by Relevant Directory 4.1 Interest Rate Bonds - Liquidity Observation: The central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank and exchange funds rose. For example, DR001 rose 6.08BP to 1.5174%, and GC001 rose 3.00BP to 1.4130% [15][19][21]. - Primary Market Issuance: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the primary market of interest rate bonds issued 939.805 billion yuan, with a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased [27]. - Secondary Market Trading: The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened from 31.62BP to 34.89BP, and that of policy - bank bonds widened from 23.82BP to 28.57BP [33][34]. 4.2 Credit Bonds - Primary Market Issuance: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, 956 credit bonds were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of 1207.483 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 133.033 billion yuan. Company bonds had the largest proportion of issuance volume, and AAA - rated bonds accounted for 77.67% of the total issuance scale. The issuance was mainly short - term, and the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][50]. - Secondary Market Trading: The yields of urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes increased overall. The 3 - year AA - rated urban investment bonds had the largest increase of 12.27BP, and the 10 - year AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes had the largest increase of 11.99BP [58]. - One - Week Credit Default Event Review: One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during July 21 - July 27, 2025 [60]. 4.3 Major Asset Weekly Observation - Most European and American Stock Indexes Rose: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.26%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.02%. Among European stock indexes, the German DAX Index fell 0.30%, the French CAC40 Index rose 0.15%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 1.43% [3][62][63]. - Differentiated Yields of US Treasury Bonds: The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year US Treasury bonds rose, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds fell. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by - 5.00BP to 31.00BP [65]. - Weakening US Dollar Index and Strengthening Non - US Currencies: The US dollar index fell 0.80%. The pound sterling, euro, and Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar [70]. - Decline in Crude Oil and Gold Prices: The prices of COMEX gold futures and London spot gold fell. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices also declined [72].