Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR, suggesting to pay attention to the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of the month [3] Core Viewpoints - PX/PTA prices follow the rise of oil prices. Geopolitical situations have disrupted oil prices, and the market is concerned about the interruption of Russian oil supply. The Middle - East situation also supports the rebound of oil prices. PX maintains a low - inventory pattern, and PXN has support. PTA's own fundamentals have little change, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 88.7% (a 0.4% increase compared to the previous period). After the terminal weaving replenished raw materials, the inventory pressure of filament factories decreased significantly. The polyester load remains strong in the short term. The short - fiber factory has different pressure levels, and the bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term [2] - The strategy includes a neutral stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, shorting PTA processing fees at high levels for cross - variety trading, and no cross - period trading strategy [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Price and Basis - The report presents figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [4][5] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures show PX processing fees (PXN: PX China CFR - Naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [4][5] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan Naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [4][5] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [4][5] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [4][5] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [4][5] 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, the spread between original and regenerated fibers, and the operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [4][5] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fees, bottle - chip export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, and bottle - chip inter - month spreads [4][5]
PX/PTA跟随油价上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-31 05:04