燃料油日报：油价再度走高，关注地缘扰动-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Volatility [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Volatility [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent strengthening of crude oil prices has driven up energy commodities including FU and LU The market fears that Trump may intensify sanctions on Russia, leading to a decline in market supply However, if the sanction expectations are not fulfilled, there is still resistance above the oil price [1] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market has been weak recently, with its market structure continuously adjusting and crack spreads significantly falling from high levels The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant and the inventory level is high Although the supply of arbitrage cargoes may tighten and the Asia-Pacific market may get short-term support, the market may strengthen again if the crack spreads are fully adjusted and refinery demand rebounds significantly [1] - The overall pressure on the low-sulfur fuel oil market is currently limited, but in the medium term, the market outlook is not optimistic due to abundant surplus production capacity and the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry [1] Strategy Summary - For high-sulfur fuel oil: Consider closing out short positions on the crack spread of FU (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [2] - For low-sulfur fuel oil: No specific strategy mentioned [2] - For cross-variety: Close out short positions on the crack spread of FU (FU-Brent or FU-SC) [2] - For cross-period: Gradually close out reverse arbitrage positions on FU [2] - For spot-futures: No strategy [2] - For options: No strategy [2] Chart Information - The report provides various charts related to fuel oil, including spot prices, swap contracts, futures prices, spreads, and trading volumes of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and the domestic market [3]