现货购销转好,豆粕震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-31 05:01
- Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The market for bean meal and corn is influenced by multiple factors including weather, trade policies, and supply - demand dynamics. For bean meal, the supply is expected to be ample, and for corn, the supply - demand balance is also under the influence of various elements such as import policies and crop conditions [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3010 yuan/ton yesterday, up 27 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2735 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+2.82%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2860 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2690 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: From July 1 - 25, Brazil's soybean exports reached 10.447 million tons, with a daily average of 550,000 tons, a 12.4% year - on - year increase. South American soybean exports in July are expected to increase by about 2 million tons year - on - year, with China as the main destination [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The bean meal futures price showed a weak and volatile trend yesterday. The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is good, and the soybean growth is expected to continue to improve. Macro factors are obvious, with an upcoming Sino - US meeting in August and an expected improvement in trade relations. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal remains loose, with high soybean arrivals and increasing oil mill inventories [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - The strategy for bean meal is cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2312 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.43%); the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2683 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.64%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Market Information: As of July 27, 2025, 74% of the US national surface soil moisture was sufficient to excessive. In the main corn - producing states in the Midwest, the proportion of sufficient to excessive soil moisture in Iowa was 85%, in Illinois was 92%, and in Indiana was 77%. As of July 26, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/25 season was 66.1%, and the expected total production was 131.97 million tons, a 14.3% increase from the previous year [4] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - The corn futures price showed a narrow - range volatile trend yesterday. Domestically, on the supply side, after the digestion of negative factors such as imported corn auctions, traders' shipments have stabilized. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises have sufficient corn and wheat inventories. The impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened [5] 3.2.3 Strategy - The strategy for corn is cautiously bearish [6]