Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Core Viewpoints - The 50% tariff does not cover refined copper, leading to a significant decline in the Comex premium. If the over 250,000 tons of Comex copper inventory flows back into the market, it may impact copper prices again. Therefore, a wait - and - see approach is recommended for now [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On July 30, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 78,910 yuan/ton and closed at 78,930 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,700 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the afternoon close [1] - Spot Situation: The domestic electrolytic copper spot market has a tight supply pattern, with a significant strengthening of spot premiums. The SMM1 electrolytic copper is priced at 79,200 - 79,370 yuan/ton, with a premium of 130 - 200 yuan/ton to the current - month contract. The average premium is 165 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous day. It is expected that the short - term premium will remain firm [2] Important Information Summaries - Macro and Geopolitical: The White House announced a 50% tariff on semi - finished products like copper tubes and wires, exempting raw materials such as cathode copper and ores. This caused the COMEX copper price to plummet by up to 20% on the day, and the Comex - to - LME price difference has shrunk to about 5% [3] - Mining End: Glencore plans to cut about $1 billion in costs by the end of 2026 and has raised the long - term profit forecast for its commodity trading division from $2.2 - 3.2 billion to $2.3 - 3.5 billion. The trading division had a profit of $1.35 billion in the first half of the year [3] - Smelting and Imports: The Comex premium has weakened significantly due to the tariff exemption of refined copper, and it has recovered to about 5% of the LME price. If the over 250,000 tons of US copper inventory flows back into the market, it may impact copper prices [4] - Consumption: Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Due to the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited growth. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, market demand was relatively stable, and downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases [4] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 225 tons to 136,850 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 1,890 tons to 19,973 tons. On July 28, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 120,300 tons, a change of 6,100 tons from the previous week [4] Data Tables - Spot (Premium/Discount): The premium for SMM 1 copper (premium copper) is 165 - 180, for flat - copper is 150, for wet - process copper is 25, the Yangshan premium is 60, and LME (0 - 3) is - 52 [27] - Inventory: LME inventory is 136,850 tons, SHFE inventory is 73,423 tons, and COMEX inventory is 229,909 tons [27][28] - Warehouse Receipts: SHFE warehouse receipts are 19,973 tons, and the proportion of LME cancelled warehouse receipts is 15.20% [28] - Arbitrage: The spread between CU08 - CU06 (continuous third - near - month) is - 30, between CU07 - CU06 (main - near - month) is 0, CU07/AL07 is 3.83, CU07/ZN07 is 3.48, and the import profit is - 313 [28]
新能源及有色金属日报:关税并未涉及精铜,纽铜大幅走低-20250731
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-31 05:01