新能源及有色金属日报：现货升贴水低位运行-20250731

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market has weakened, and the spot premium has generally declined steadily. The supply pressure in August remains high, and the social inventory shows a trend of accumulation. Due to the current consumption off - season and supply pressure, zinc prices face significant pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$3.92 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,680 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 10 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,660 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,640 yuan per ton, with a premium of - 50 yuan per ton [1]. Futures Market - On July 30, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,640 yuan per ton, closed at 22,670 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 141,408 lots, and the open interest was 116,245 lots. The highest price was 22,770 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,610 yuan per ton [2]. Inventory - As of July 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 103,700 tons, a change of 5,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 109,050 tons, a change of - 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - Downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market has weakened, and traders have a mentality of supporting prices. The domestic ore new - month tender price has not been finalized, and the imported ore TC is still rising, with the highest offer reaching $85 per ton. The smelting profit is increasing, and the supply pressure in August remains high. The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, but the social inventory is accumulating, and the zinc price is under pressure [4].