宏观面强预期，基本面弱现实

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] Core Viewpoints - For propylene, after the Politburo meeting, there are strong expectations on the macro - policy front, but the supply - demand fundamentals remain weak. Supply - side pressure is increasing significantly, with device restarts and rising PDH capacity utilization. Many downstream devices have maintenance plans, and the cost support is weak due to the weak oil prices [3]. - For polyolefins, the fundamentals change little, and the supply - demand pattern has no obvious improvement. There are both shutdown and startup plans for some devices, with rising capacity utilization expectations and increasing supply pressure. The cost support is weak, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [3] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures related to propylene basis structure include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, and the 01 - 05 contract [10][13] II. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization [19][21][29] III. Propylene Import and Export Profits - Figures include the differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [35][37] IV. Propylene Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - Figures cover the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [43][53][60] V. Propylene Inventory - Figures show propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [69] VI. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, the basis between LL East China and the main contract, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [70][74] VII. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures involve LL production profit (crude - oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude - oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [79][87][93] VIII. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between HD injection molding and LL East China, HD blow molding and LL East China, HD film and LL East China, LD East China and LL, PP low - melt copolymer and drawn wire in East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding and drawn wire in East China [97][100][101] IX. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Figures include LL import profit, differences between LL US Gulf FOB and China's CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR and China's CFR, LL Europe FD and China's CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), differences between PP homopolymer injection molding US Gulf FOB and China's CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Southeast Asia CFR and China's CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Northwest Europe FOB and China's CFR, and LL export profit [106][117][122] X. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Profits - Figures cover the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, winding film, PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and their corresponding production gross profits [128][129][134] XI. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures show the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [139][142][144]