台风影响下，EG基差上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter-period: None - Inter-variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Market analysis shows that in the futures and spot markets, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,450 yuan/ton (a change of -17 yuan/ton or -0.38% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton (a change of +7 yuan/ton or +0.15% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 4 yuan/ton). With market news calming down, EG fluctuated widely, and the basis rose under the influence of typhoons. In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$39/ton (a month-on-month increase of $4/ton), and that of coal-based syngas EG was 98 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 13 yuan/ton). Regarding inventory, according to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 12,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 475,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 19,000 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals, so actual arrivals should be monitored [1]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply-demand logic, on the supply side, domestically, the load of ethylene glycol syngas production has returned to a high level and can be further increased under favorable conditions. Some EO-EG co-production plants in non-coal sectors have plans or actions to switch from EO to EG, and the overall load is moderately high. Overseas, the Sharq series of plants in Saudi Arabia have restarted, and in an ideal situation, the supply of ocean freight will gradually return to normal, with an expected increase in imports. On the demand side, due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, greatly alleviating the inventory pressure of filaments. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August. Overall, there will be concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in late July, and there is pressure for the fundamentals to weaken in August under high supply [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,450 yuan/ton (a change of -17 yuan/ton or -0.38% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton (a change of +7 yuan/ton or +0.15% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 4 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$39/ton (a month-on-month increase of $4/ton), and that of coal-based syngas EG was 98 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - Due to the price increase effect, the terminal has replenished inventory intensively, greatly alleviating the inventory pressure of filaments. It is expected that the polyester load will remain strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the order connection in August [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 521,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 12,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 475,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 19,000 tons). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 108,000 tons, lower than the planned value, and the port inventory decreased slightly. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 156,000 tons, with concentrated arrivals, so actual arrivals should be monitored [1].