Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation has marginally improved, but the upside space is limited. Zinc is an oversupplied variety, and inventory accumulation has begun in all links of the industrial chain. The overall outlook for the year is bearish. In July, smelters are actively resuming production. Considering the resumption of production after maintenance and new production, the month - on - month increase may be between 15,000 and 20,000 tons. It is the off - season for consumption, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the valuation center of Shanghai zinc will decline, and the month - on - month increase in social inventory will rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Qualitative Analysis of Zinc - Core Viewpoint: The outlook is oscillating weakly. The macro - situation has marginally improved, but the upside space is limited. Zinc is an oversupplied variety, and inventory accumulation has begun in all links of the industrial chain. The overall outlook for the year is bearish. In July, smelters are actively resuming production. Considering the resumption of production after maintenance and new production, the month - on - month increase may be between 15,000 and 20,000 tons. It is the off - season for consumption, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the valuation center of Shanghai zinc will decline, and the month - on - month increase in social inventory will rise [3]. - Smelting Profit: Bearish. The weekly domestic processing fee is 3,800 yuan/metal ton; the weekly imported TC is 65 US dollars/dry ton, with a small month - on - month increase. The average smelting profit without considering by - products has risen to around - 200 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot Premium/Discount: Bearish. Shanghai has a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract; Guangdong has a discount of - 45 yuan/ton over the 2509 contract; Tianjin has a discount of 20 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [3]. - Galvanized Steel Pipe开工率: Bearish. The weekly production capacity utilization rate of galvanized steel pipes is 49.91%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% [3]. - Alloy开工率: Bearish. The weekly alloy production capacity utilization rate is 58.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% [3]. - Domestic Inventory: Bearish. The inventory in the original three regions has increased by 500 tons, and the inventory in the seven regions has increased by 400 tons [3]. - LME Premium/Discount: Bullish. The LME zinc 0 - 3 premium/discount has risen to around - 10 US dollars/ton [3]. - Import Profit: Bullish. The import window is closed. The LME zinc ingot has a loss of 1,300 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai zinc spot and a loss of 1,400 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai zinc 2508 futures [3]. - LME Inventory: Bearish. The total LME zinc inventory is 121,500 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 15,800 tons [3]. 2. Monthly Balance Sheet of Zinc - Total Production: Varies from month to month, with 546,900 tons in March 2025 and 595,100 tons in July 2025 [4]. - Import: Ranges from 26,700 tons to 39,700 tons from January to December 2025, with a decrease in some months [4]. - Export: Remains relatively stable at around 1,000 tons per month [4]. - Total Supply: Fluctuates between 515,100 tons and 626,100 tons throughout the year [4]. - Total Consumption: Ranges from 485,600 tons to 618,200 tons, showing different trends in different months [4]. - Surplus Quantity: There are periods of surplus and deficit, with a surplus of 261,000 tons in July 2025 [4]. 3. Weekly Fundamental Situation - Production News: Australian copper miner 29Metals reported a decline in both copper and zinc production in the second quarter. Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the second quarter of 2025 increased by 7% year - on - year. EmSulliden Mining Capital Inc. obtained a 48% stake in a nickel, zinc, and lead exploration project in Poland. Hudbay Minerals suspended operations in the Snow Lake area due to wildfires [7]. 4. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - Domestic Processing Fee: The 50% grade zinc concentrate processing fee is in the range of 3,600 - 4,300 yuan/metal ton, with a national average of 3,800 yuan/metal ton, unchanged month - on - month [9]. - Imported Processing Fee: The imported zinc concentrate processing fee ranges from 50 to 80 US dollars/dry ton, with an average of 65 US dollars/dry ton, unchanged month - on - month. The long - term tender price of overseas zinc concentrates has not increased significantly, but the container bulk cargo transaction price has increased, and the overall trend of imported ores is upward [9]. 5. Zinc Concentrate Import and Inventory - Import Volume: In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore and concentrates was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. The cumulative import volume from January to May was 2.204 million tons [10]. - Import Source Countries: Mainly from Australia, Peru, Russia, and South Africa, with Peru and Australia being the major ones [12]. - Port Inventory: As of July 11, the total port inventory was 333,000 tons, including 80,000 tons in Lianyungang and 140,000 tons in Fangchenggang. Recent port transactions have decreased, and traders are waiting to sell [15]. 6. Zinc Futures Prices - Shanghai Zinc Futures: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 22,340 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 22,475 yuan/ton, a low of 21,865 yuan/ton, and closed at 22,380 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%. The monthly spread has fallen below 100 yuan, and the cost - effectiveness of the monthly spread ratio is not high, so it is currently advisable to wait and see [18]. - LME Zinc Futures: Last week, LME zinc opened at 2,733.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly high of 2,785 US dollars/ton, a low of 2,675.5 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,738 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.09%. The outer market maintains a backwardation structure, and the LME zinc 0 - 3 discount is around - 10 US dollars/ton [20]. 7. Zinc Import Profit and Ratio - Shanghai - London Ratio: As of this Tuesday, the Shanghai - London ratio of zinc has dropped to 8.15, and the exchange - adjusted ratio has dropped to 1.14. The import window is closed, and the current spot import loss is 900 yuan/ton [25]. 8. Refined Zinc Production and Consumption - Production: In July, many smelters are resuming or starting production. Yunnan, Guangxi, Qinghai, and Henan smelters contribute to the increase, while Inner Mongolia and Gansu smelters contribute to the decrease. It is expected that the refined zinc production in July 2025 will increase by about 20,000 tons month - on - month [33]. - Import: In May 2025, China imported 26,700 tons of refined zinc, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The main import countries are Kazakhstan, Australia, and Spain, with Kazakhstan and Australia accounting for 58.7% and 13.56% respectively. The main import provinces are Shanghai and Zhejiang [35]. - Downstream Consumption: The production capacity utilization rate of galvanized pipes is 49.91%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61%. The alloy production capacity utilization rate is 58.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%. The terminal consumption has not improved, and the market order transactions are not good [3][40][42]. 9. Zinc Inventory - SHFE Inventory: As of July 11, the total SHFE refined zinc inventory was 49,500 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of about 4,000 tons [53]. - LME Inventory: As of July 11, the total LME zinc inventory was 121,500 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 15,800 tons [53]. - Seven - Region Inventory: As of July 17, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 93,500 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons compared to July 10, with significant inventory increases in Guangdong and Tianjin [60]. 10. Lead - Zinc Ratio - The lead - zinc ratio has risen slightly. As of this Tuesday, the domestic lead - zinc ratio is 0.77, and the outer - market lead - zinc ratio is 0.74 [61].
紫金天风期货不疾不徐
Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo·2025-07-31 05:09