新能源及有色金属日报：交易限仓进一步加强，短期交易需注意风险-20250731

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, recent price fluctuations are due to rising raw material coal prices and changes in supply - demand. The market is expected to remain volatile with a neutral stance on the single - side strategy [1][2][3]. - For polysilicon, the futures market is affected by the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry, with a certain deviation from the spot fundamentals. There is a risk of chasing high prices, and the recommended strategy is to sell - hedge at high prices and buy put options [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 9500 yuan/ton and closed at 9285 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton (2.20%) from the previous settlement. The closing position of the 2509 main contract was 242,677 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 49,846 lots, a change of - 236 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9900 - 10100 (200) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 10100 - 10400 (100) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in multiple regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang also rose, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - Affected by the rising price of raw material coal, the cost of silicon coal was strongly supported, driving up the prices of silicon coal in many regions. For example, the price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, it increased by 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 12100 - 12700 (- 50) yuan/ton. The supply in the silicone market was contracting, and manufacturers' willingness to maintain prices increased significantly [2]. - Strategy - The recent market fluctuations have increased, but the fundamentals have changed little. It is expected that the market will remain volatile. - Single - side: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 51,800 yuan/ton and closing at 54,705 yuan/ton, a change of 8.87% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 164,490 lots (140,638 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 565,243 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. N - type material was 44.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.30, a month - on - month change of - 2.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.87GW, a month - on - month change of 11.55%. The weekly polysilicon output was 25,500.00 tons, a month - on - month change of 10.87%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.20GW, a month - on - month change of 0.90% [4]. - In terms of silicon wafers, domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 (0.05) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.55 (0.05) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.35 (0.05) yuan/piece [4]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (- 0.01) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (- 0.01) yuan/W [5]. - According to the data released by the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feeding materials this week was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 44,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 44,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [6]. - From the perspective of supply and demand, the total polysilicon output in July is expected to be close to 110,000 tons, and there is still a large possibility of growth in August. In July, the start - up of silicon wafer factories was relatively weak. With the rise in silicon wafer prices, some enterprises had preliminary plans to start furnaces, and the implementation needs further observation. The supply - demand fundamentals were weak [6]. - According to the exchange announcement, non - futures company members or customers' single - day opening volume on the polysilicon futures PS2509 contract should not exceed 500 lots, and on the PS2510, PS2511, PS2512, and PS2601 contracts, it should not exceed 2,000 lots respectively [6]. - Strategy - Currently, the polysilicon futures market is mainly affected by the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry, and there is a certain deviation from the spot fundamentals in the short term. The industry's acquisition and merger plan is still being promoted, and there is no clear conclusion yet. The futures are easily affected by news. From a valuation perspective, a price of 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton already gives the industry good profits, and the risk of chasing high prices is relatively large. The market fluctuations are large, and the futures position is large. After the exchange's position limit, the change in position can also easily cause market fluctuations. Investors need to pay attention to risk management. - Single - side: Sell - hedge at high prices; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: Buy put options [6][7].