基本面驱动不足，氯碱持续上行受限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward trend of the chlor - alkali industry is limited due to insufficient fundamental drivers [1]. - For PVC, the short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment, and it may shift to fundamental logic later. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, with high upstream production and new production expectations in July - August, leading to large supply - side pressure. The demand is weak, and the cost side lacks support. There is pressure to compress chlor - alkali profits [4]. - For caustic soda, the macro - atmosphere related to the renovation of old facilities has weakened, and the market is oscillating weakly. The supply pressure is large, the demand has both rigid support and off - season weakness, and the inventory pressure is increasing [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures and Basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5159 yuan/ton (- 33), the East China basis is - 119 yuan/ton (+ 53), and the South China basis is - 119 yuan/ton (+ 13) [2]. - Spot Price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5040 yuan/ton (+ 20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5040 yuan/ton (- 20) [2]. - Upstream Production Profit: The semi - coke price is 540 yuan/ton (+ 5), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is 58 yuan/ton (- 4), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 134 yuan/ton (+ 181), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 506 yuan/ton (+ 89), and the PVC export profit is - 11.3 US dollars/ton (+ 5.8) [2]. - Inventory and Operation Rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 35.7 tons (- 1.0), the social PVC inventory is 42.7 tons (+ 1.6), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 79.21% (+ 1.69%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 66.95% (- 1.36%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.81% (+ 0.84%) [2]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 79.5 tons (+ 9.9) [2]. Caustic Soda - Futures and Basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2613 yuan/ton (- 29), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 19 yuan/ton (+ 29) [2]. - Spot Price: 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 830 yuan/ton (+ 0), and 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is quoted at 1330 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream Production Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 739.5 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 737.53 yuan/ton (+ 50.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1819.75 yuan/ton (+ 135.41) [3]. - Inventory and Operation Rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.84 tons (+ 2.45), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.31 tons (- 0.09), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.00% (+ 1.40%) [3]. - Downstream Operation Rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.45% (+ 1.84%), the dyeing operation rate in East China is 58.89% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+ 0.42%) [3]. Market Analysis PVC - The short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment. As the atmosphere weakens and approaches the delivery month of 09, it may shift to fundamental logic. The fundamentals have not improved, with large supply - side pressure, weak demand, and lack of cost support. There is pressure to compress chlor - alkali profits [4]. Caustic Soda - The macro - atmosphere related to the renovation of old facilities has weakened, and the market is oscillating weakly. The supply pressure is large, the demand has both rigid support and off - season weakness, and the inventory pressure is increasing [4]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage when the V09 - 01 spread is high [5]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage for SH2509 - SH2601 [6].