美欧二季度GDP均好于预期，美联储按兵不动

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP of the US and Europe in the second quarter was better than expected, and the Fed kept its policy unchanged. The market should focus on domestic important meetings, the progress of "anti - involution", the impact of "reciprocal tariffs", and corresponding commodity sectors. For investment, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [1][2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's H1 GDP grew 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and "rush to export" supported the economy, but policy urgency decreased. In June, exports were strong, while social retail sales growth slowed to 4.8%. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined, and real estate sales were weak. The Politburo meeting proposed more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and local governments will open applications for parenting subsidies in late August [1]. "Anti - Involution" Progress Tracking - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized governing low - price and disorderly competition. Policy expectations for "anti - involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles have increased, and some commodity prices have recovered. Ten key industries' steady - growth work plans are to be introduced, and the petrochemical and chemical industries' old - device assessment is underway [2]. "Reciprocal Tariffs" Impact - After the "Big Beautiful" bill, Trump focused on external pressure to promote tariff negotiations. Tariffs are in a "stagnant" stage, dragging down commodities affected by external demand. The US Q2 GDP growth was 3%, and the Fed paused rate cuts. The eurozone's Q2 economic growth was better than expected, and the rate - cut expectation declined [3]. Corresponding Commodity Sectors - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from inflation expectations. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand, and the supply of non - ferrous metals remains tight. The energy supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. Some chemical products' "anti - involution" space is worth attention, and agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate more industrial products on dips [5]. Important News - The Politburo will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan. Parenting subsidy applications will be open by August 31. The US and China will extend the suspension of part of reciprocal tariffs. Trump imposed tariffs on multiple countries, and the US economic data and Fed's policy were released [7][8].