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股指期货将震荡整理,白银、工业硅、多晶硅、碳酸锂、焦煤、玻璃期货将震荡偏弱,黄金、铜、螺纹钢、纯碱、PVC期货将偏弱震荡,原油期货将偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-31 05:09

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report provides a forecast of the trend of various futures contracts on July 31, 2025, including the expected trend, support, and resistance levels of each contract [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Alerts - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to study the formulation of the 15th Five - Year Plan. It emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [8]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%, and Chairman Powell said it was too early to determine a rate cut in September [10]. - The US announced tariffs on imported semi - finished copper products, Brazilian products, and Indian goods, which affected the copper market [10][11]. - The eurozone's Q2 GDP growth slowed, and Canada's central bank kept interest rates unchanged [12]. - The General Administration of Customs adjusted trading limits for certain industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts [12]. 2. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 2.1 Stock Index Futures - On July 30, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 had different intraday performances. It is expected that on July 31, stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 4173 and 4200 points and support at 4130 and 4100 points [15][19]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On July 30, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures T2509 and TL2509 both rose. It is expected that on July 31, they will fluctuate strongly. T2509 will attack resistance at 108.40 and 108.46 yuan, with support at 108.18 and 108.01 yuan; TL2509 will attack resistance at 118.7 and 118.9 yuan, with support at 117.9 and 117.6 yuan [36][40]. 2.3 Precious Metal Futures - Gold futures AU2510 rose slightly on July 30. It is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 765.2 and 760.6 yuan/gram and resistance at 772.7 and 773.8 yuan/gram. Silver futures AG2510 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 9008 and 8943 yuan/kg and resistance at 9152 and 9166 yuan/kg [46][54]. 2.4 Base Metal Futures - Copper futures CU2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 78500 and 78000 yuan/ton and resistance at 78900 and 79200 yuan/ton. Alumina futures AO2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 3307 and 3287 yuan/ton and resistance at 3326 and 3349 yuan/ton [59][63]. 2.5 Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil futures SC2509 rose on July 30. It is expected to fluctuate strongly on July 31, attacking resistance at 539 and 547 yuan/barrel, with support at 529 and 525 yuan/barrel. PTA futures TA509 is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 4820 and 4800 yuan/ton and resistance at 4880 and 4910 yuan/ton [95][99]. 2.6 Agricultural Futures - Bean meal futures M2509 rose on July 30. It is expected to fluctuate weakly on July 31, with support at 2978 and 2960 yuan/ton and resistance at 3022 and 3038 yuan/ton [104].