FICC日报：MSC以及OOCL8月份运价下修，驱动偏空-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The downward adjustment of freight rates by MSC and OOCL in August has a bearish impact on the market [1]. - The 8 - month contract shows high - level volatility, and the top of the freight rate has emerged. The final delivery settlement price of the 08 contract may be around 2200 points, but there is still uncertainty [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with large expected fluctuations [5]. - The 12 - month contract still follows the peak - off - peak pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. If it resumes, the seasonal pattern may be challenged [6][7]. - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU [8]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract will fluctuate, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 30, 2025, the positions of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures are 79,320.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 76,715.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1532.00, 1386.10, 1514.20, 2139.00, 1468.70, and 1738.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On July 25, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2090.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 2067.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 3378.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 28, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2316.56 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1284.01 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The monthly average weekly capacity on the China - European base port route in August 2025 is 303,200 TEU, and in September it is 289,800 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings in August, all from the OA alliance, and there are currently 5 TBNs in August and 3 in September. Maersk added an extra - sailing ship in Week 32 and is expected to add one in Week 34 [3]. - As of July 27, 2025, 49 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 737,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [8]. 4. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical uncertainty, such as the ongoing cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which may affect the shipping supply chain [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - No specific analysis of demand and European economy is provided in the text. However, the freight rate trends of different contracts are related to market demand and economic conditions. For example, the 12 - month contract is affected by the peak - season demand before Western holidays [6][7].