原油日报：特朗普威胁印度对其进行俄油采购惩罚-20250731

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Trump's threat of imposing separate tariff penalties on India's Russian oil purchases is a fabricated tariff bargaining chip. Given that the EU and Japan are still importing Russian natural gas, India is unlikely to significantly reduce its Russian crude oil purchases [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Crude oil futures prices rose: NYMEX September - delivery light crude oil futures rose 79 cents to $70.00 per barrel, a 1.14% increase; ICE September - delivery Brent crude oil futures rose 73 cents to $73.24 per barrel, a 1.01% increase; SC crude oil main contract rose 1.66% to 533 yuan per barrel [1] - UAE's Fujeirah Port: As of the week ending July 28, the total refined oil inventory decreased by 3.477 million barrels to 17.048 million barrels, with light distillates, medium distillates, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories all decreasing [1] - Trump's statements: He will give Russia 10 days to reach an agreement with Ukraine, or else impose additional tariffs on Russia; he plans to impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods exported to the US starting August 1 and warns of additional penalties for India's continued purchase of Russian energy [1] - India: Indian refiners are seeking government clarification on whether their Russian oil purchases will be affected by Trump's threat [1] - Japan: As of the week ending July 26, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 482,030 kiloliters, gasoline inventory decreased by 131,669 kiloliters, kerosene inventory increased by 58,973 kiloliters, and the average refinery operating rate dropped to 82.7% [1] Investment Logic - India has become a focal point in tariff negotiations and secondary tariffs on Russian oil purchases. It imports nearly 1.5 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day. Trump's threat of tariff penalties on India's Russian oil purchases is a fabricated bargaining chip, and India is unlikely to significantly reduce its purchases [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: US relaxes sanctions on Iranian oil; macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: US intensifies sanctions on Russian oil; Middle - East conflicts lead to large - scale supply disruptions [3]