农产品日报：早熟果存反青问题，红枣销区到货较少-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral [3] - Red dates: Neutral to bullish [8] Core Views - Apple: The apple market is generally quiet, but the remaining inventory is at a historical low, which provides some support for prices. The short - term price is expected to remain stable, and attention should be paid to the listing and trading of new - season early - maturing apples [2][3]. - Red dates: The red date futures rose slightly. The second and third batches of flower setting in the production area are better than expected, and the arrival volume in the sales area is small during the off - season. The new - season production is estimated to decline, and attention should be paid to the weather in the production area and the last batch of flowers [7]. Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 7915 yuan/ton, a change of +7 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.09% [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10805 yuan/ton, a change of +15 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.14% [4]. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [4]. Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price rose yesterday. The remaining inventory in the warehouse is low, the early - maturing apples have quality problems, and the number of new - season bagged fruits is slightly lower than the previous season. The sales in the production and sales areas are slow, and the terminal demand has not improved significantly. However, the low inventory supports the price. This week, attention should be paid to the game between merchants' price - pressing and fruit farmers' acceptance, and the price performance of QinYang apples in the west after centralized listing [2]. Red dates - The red date futures rose slightly yesterday. The second and third batches of flower setting in the production area are better than expected, and the arrival volume in the sales area is small during the off - season. The new - season jujubes are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage, and the overall production is estimated to decline by 5 - 10% compared with 2022 and 20 - 25% compared with 2024, with an estimated output of 56 - 62 million tons. Attention should be paid to the weather in the production area and the last batch of flowers [7]. Strategy Apple - Maintain a neutral strategy. Since the current remaining inventory in the production area is low and the expected output of the new season changes little from last year, the apple fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable. Pay attention to the listing and trading of new - season early - maturing apples [3]. Red dates - Adopt a neutral - to - bullish strategy. Recently, funds are very sensitive to the growth of new - season red dates, and the news from the production area has a great impact on the futures market. The futures and spot prices may fluctuate strongly in the future under the expectation of production decline and the reality of improved spot transactions. Pay close attention to the growth of new - season red dates [8].