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新东方-S(09901):教育业务当季增势良好,下季收入增速指引谨慎
Guoxin Securities·2025-07-31 06:02

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's education business showed strong growth in FY2025Q4, with non-selective business revenue increasing by 18.7%, surpassing management's guidance [1][8] - For FY2026Q1, the company expects a cautious revenue growth of 2-5%, primarily due to a slowdown in study abroad business growth and other educational training services [3][18] - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, intending to return 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [3][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2025Q4, the company reported total revenue of $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with non-selective revenue at $1.089 billion, up 18.7% [1][8] - The operating profit was a loss of $8.67 million, primarily due to a one-time goodwill impairment of $60.3 million in the kindergarten business [1][8] - The deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.954 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1][8] Business Segments - K9 education new business grew by 32.5%, while high school training revenue increased by 24% [2][9] - The study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 14.6% and 8.2%, respectively, although consumer spending power is declining [2][9] - The e-commerce revenue decreased by approximately 10% due to the divestment of a specific business, but the decline has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis [2][9] Operational Efficiency - The gross margin for FY2025Q4 was 54.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][16] - The management expense ratio remained stable at 33.0%, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.0% [2][16] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 5-10% for FY2026, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and profitability [3][19] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2027 have been lowered to $430 million and $483 million, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 24% and 29% [3][19] - The company plans to increase its network of schools and learning centers by 10-15% in FY2026 [2][9]