GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-07-31 05:56Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The focus of urban renewal should be on the transformation of urban villages and the renovation of dilapidated housing. It is anticipated that urban village renovation projects will continue to increase in volume by 2025, with attention on the pace of PSL (Policy-based Financial Instruments) issuance in the second half of the year [2][3]. - The report suggests that the fourth quarter of this year will face a high base period, but there is an expectation of policy strengthening in the third quarter to alleviate fundamental pressures and aim for stabilization. If sales do not stabilize in the fourth quarter, there may be sales pressure on blue-chip developers in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal as a key theme in this year's important meetings, emphasizing the need for effective implementation of urban renewal policies [5][10]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "Overweight" rating, with specific stock picks including: 1. Development: Vanke A, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and JinDi Group in A-shares; China Overseas Development in H-shares 2. Commercial and Residential: China Resources Land, Longfor Group, and New Town Holdings 3. Property Management: Wanwu Cloud, China Resources Vientiane Life, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, and New Dazheng 4. Cultural Tourism: Overseas Chinese Town A [5][6]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating. For example: - Vanke A: EPS forecast for 2024A is -4.17 CNY - Poly Developments: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.42 CNY - China Overseas Development: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.43 CNY [6].