航运衍生品数据日报-20250731

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market of shipping derivatives shows a pattern of mixed trends with some indices declining and some contracts rising. The spot price of shipping is expected to peak at the end of July and gradually decline, and the 10 - contract focuses on the decline slope of freight rates from August to October. The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [5][6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Freight Index - Current and Previous Values and Changes: The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1647, 1304, 2142, 1301, 3612, and 2079 respectively, with previous values of 1699, 1348, 2219, 1318, 3862, and 2068 respectively, and the corresponding percentage changes are - 3.30%, - 3.23%, - 3.50%, - 1.31%, - 6.48%, and 0.53%. The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 2316 and 2418 respectively, with previous values of 2400 and 2528 respectively, and the percentage changes are - 3.50% and - 4.35% [3] Contracts - Current and Previous Values and Changes: The current values of contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1514.2, 2139.0, 1468.7, 1738.0, 1532.0, and 1386.1 respectively, with previous values of 1504.9, 2111.0, 1460.0, 1735.0, 1521.3, and 1370.0 respectively, and the percentage changes are 0.62%, 1.33%, 0.60%, 0.17%, 0.70%, and 1.18%. The current values of EC2606, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 positions are 776, 5597, 54874, 8505, 4301, and 5267 respectively, with previous values of 762, 5926, 50726, 8131, 4328, and 5107 respectively, and the changes are 14, - 329, 4148, 374, - 27, and 160 [3] Month - Spread - Current and Previous Values and Changes: The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 month - spreads are - 269.3, 206.0, and 351.9 respectively, with previous values of - 275.0, 213.7, and 365.0 respectively, and the changes are 5.7, - 7.7, and - 13.1 [3] Market Situation - Market Trend: The market shows a pattern of mixed trends. The near - month contracts are affected by the continuous decline of the shipping company's price opening in early August, and the US - China and EU - China tariff talks may provide emotional support. The 08 contract had a limit - down opening on Wednesday morning, possibly due to the exchange's forced liquidation of over - position parts. On Thursday, the near - month contracts were strong due to the 90 - day extension of the US - China tariff negotiation [5] Spot Price - Price Forecast: The spot price is basically confirmed to peak at the end of July. The shipping company's price opening in early August continues the price in late July but gradually decreases. The shipping demand and loading rate at the end of July are good, but the high capacity deployment in early August weakens the effect of building a stockpiling pool. It is expected that the spot price will peak at the end of July and early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline slope will increase [6] Strategy - Investment Strategy: Short the 10 - contract on rallies (take profit as it has pulled back recently) and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [7]