2025年7月PMI点评：7月PMI的不寻常

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July 2025 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from last month[3] - The decline in July's PMI is attributed to both temporary and structural factors, including extreme weather and natural disasters[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing PMI - Extreme weather conditions, such as high temperatures and natural disasters, have negatively impacted PMI readings, contributing to a seasonal decline in manufacturing[4] - The "anti-involution" trend may cause a temporary slowdown in production, but it is expected to improve price expectations significantly[5] - The new export orders index fell to 47.1%, indicating a slowdown in export demand, reflecting the effects of previous strong export activities[6] Group 3: Price Indicators - The PMI raw material purchase price index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, while the PMI factory price index rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%[5] - The marginal improvement in price expectations does not indicate a substantial recovery in prices, as the transition from negative to positive PPI growth is still pending[5] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction PMI and service PMI recorded values of 50.6% and 50.0%, with respective declines of 2.2 and 0.1 percentage points[6] - The construction sector is expected to face less downward pressure due to ongoing policy support for infrastructure projects[8]