招商期货商品期货早班车-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of various commodities are complex and affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and macro - economic situations. Different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities based on their specific fundamentals and market performances [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories 3.1 Basic Metals - Copper: Market showed copper prices fluctuated weakly yesterday, with a nearly 20% drop due to a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper. Fundamentally, strong US employment data, a hawkish Fed, and a stronger dollar pressured metals. Short - term, the strong dollar pressures metals; mid - term, a buy - on - dips strategy is maintained [1]. - Aluminum: The 2509 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed up 0.10% yesterday. Supply is increasing as plants operate at high loads, while demand is in the traditional off - season with a slight decline in the开工 rate of aluminum products. Aluminum prices have limited upside and are expected to oscillate; it's recommended to wait and see [1]. - Alumina: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 0.57% yesterday. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is stable. It's in a multi - empty game stage; it's advised to wait for clearer signals and stay on the sidelines [1]. - Zinc: The 2508 contract of zinc closed up 0.11% yesterday. Supply pressure continues as port inventories of concentrates decrease but import TC jumps and refinery profits are high. Consumption is weak in the off - season, and there is a risk of a squeeze. A sell - on - rallies strategy is recommended [1]. - Lead: The 2508 contract of lead closed down 0.06% yesterday. Supply is restricted by refinery maintenance and slow restart of recycled lead production. Consumption shows some resilience but at a low level. Inventory is increasing, and spot liquidity is tightening. A range - bound operation with short - term long positions on pullbacks is suggested [1][2]. - Industrial Silicon: The 09 contract closed down. Supply is increasing with复产 plans in the northwest and Xinjiang. Demand is mixed, with stable polysilicon开工, a decline in organic silicon output, and a slowdown in aluminum alloy demand. The market is expected to oscillate widely; it's recommended to wait and see and monitor复产 plans [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The LC2509 contract closed up. Supply is decreasing slightly, and demand is expected to improve marginally. Inventories are at a record high. Due to the retreat of anti - involution trading, prices are expected to correct in the short term with increased volatility; caution is advised [2]. - Polysilicon: The 09 contract closed up. Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is weak with a decline in silicon wafer and battery cell production and a pessimistic outlook for photovoltaic installations. The market is expected to oscillate widely between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan; it's recommended to wait and see and watch for policy and warehouse receipt changes [2]. - Tin: Tin prices continued to fluctuate weakly. Strong US data, a hawkish Fed, and a stronger dollar pressured metals. Supply and demand are both weak. A range - bound trading approach is recommended [2]. 3.2 Black Industry - Rebar: The 2510 contract of rebar closed down. Supply and demand are relatively balanced but structurally differentiated. Futures are slightly over - valued. A short - term short - selling strategy is recommended [3]. - Iron Ore: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed down. Supply and demand are neutral to strong. Futures are fairly valued. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. - Coking Coal: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed down. Supply and demand are generally loose but improving. Futures are over - valued. It's recommended to wait and see [3]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans continued to fall. Supply is abundant both in the near and long term, and demand for US soybeans is weak due to tariffs. US soybeans are expected to be weak in the short term; domestic soybeans may follow international cost trends in the medium term. Monitor weather and tariff policies [4]. - Corn: The 2509 contract of corn oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight with less remaining grain, but substitute products and imports affect prices. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - Sugar: The 09 contract of sugar closed down. Indian sugar exports pressured the market, while domestic prices rebounded due to positive sentiment. Futures are expected to oscillate weakly; a short - selling strategy in the futures market and selling call options are recommended [5]. - Cotton: US cotton futures fell, and Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated down. International tariff policies and domestic industrial losses affected the market. It's recommended to wait and see and trade within the 13,600 - 14,000 yuan range [5]. - Log: The 09 contract of log closed down. Market activity increased in trading volume and open interest, but spot prices were stable. It's recommended to wait and see [5]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil continued to rise. Supply is in the seasonal growth period, and demand for exports is weak. Short - term, it's in a weak cycle; medium - term, it's recommended to be long - biased [5]. - Egg: The 2509 contract of egg was weak. High temperatures reduced supply, and demand may increase seasonally, but high cold - storage egg inventories will limit price increases. Futures prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - Live Pig: The 2509 contract of live pig was weak. Consumption is seasonally weak, and supply pressure is high. Pig prices are expected to decline in the medium term. Monitor the slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening [6]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: The LLDPE contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing domestically but may decrease in imports. Demand is improving in some areas. Short - term, it will oscillate; long - term, a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended [7]. - PVC: The V09 contract of PVC closed down. Supply is expected to increase, and inventories are rising. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]. - Rubber: The RU2509 contract of rubber closed down. Raw material prices are falling, and inventories are increasing. It's expected to oscillate widely; it's recommended to wait and see [7]. - Glass: The FG09 contract of glass closed down. Supply may increase, and inventories are falling. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [7]. - PP: The PP contract fell slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated. Short - term, it will oscillate weakly; long - term, a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended [8]. - Crude Oil: Oil prices rose sharply. Supply may be disrupted due to potential sanctions, and demand is mixed. It's recommended to wait and see due to uncertainty [8]. - Styrene: The EB contract oscillated slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Short - term, it will oscillate weakly; long - term, a short - selling strategy on far - month contracts is recommended [8]. - Soda Ash: The sa09 contract of soda ash closed down. Supply is stable, and inventories are decreasing. It's recommended to wait and see or try short - selling options [9].