美联储7月货币政策会议点评与展望：鲍威尔打压降息预期，年内仍有望降息1-2次

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations[2] - Two FOMC members voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut[2] - The Fed's statement acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year, indicating a shift from previous assessments[2][5] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Powell expressed concerns about inflation, noting that tariffs are beginning to impact prices, particularly in categories like toys and furniture[3][4] - The June CPI data showed a rebound, suggesting rising inflationary pressures[3] - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 3%, significantly recovering from a -0.5% in the first quarter, largely due to a 5 percentage point contribution from net exports[8] Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed is expected to implement 1-2 rate cuts within the year, with a higher likelihood of a cut in November rather than September[9] - The effective tariff rate is projected to remain around 15%-16%, which may lead to moderate inflation increases but is not expected to significantly impact overall inflation levels[6][9] - The Fed's decision-making will depend on clearer signals regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions[7][9]