贵金属数据日报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the resumption of Sino - US economic and trade meetings, mild market risk - aversion demand, unexpectedly strong growth of the US Q2 GDP, rebound of core PCE, and the largest increase in ADP employment in July since March, the US dollar index and Treasury yields are boosted, suppressing precious metal prices. Gold has fallen below the $3300/ounce mark since July 1st. As the tariff situation becomes clear and a series of important US data are released, for gold, it is advisable to gradually buy at low prices and lay out long - term positions; for silver, affected by the fading of the commodity rally sentiment, it may fluctuate in the short - term and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - In the long - term, there is still a certain probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, central banks' gold purchases continue, so the medium - and long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking - Spot and Futures Prices: On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, London gold spot rose 0.3% to $3326.07/ounce, London silver spot fell 0.1% to $38.04/ounce, COMEX gold rose 2.0% to $3380.50/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.2% to $38.15/ounce, AU2510 rose 0.3% to 773.78 yuan/gram, AG2510 remained unchanged at 9192 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 0.2% to 769.42 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) fell 0.1% to 9158 yuan/kilogram [3]. - Spread and Ratio: On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, the spread of gold between domestic and foreign markets (TD - London) was - 4.36 yuan/gram (up 13.0%), the spread of silver between domestic and foreign markets (TD - London) was - 34 yuan/kilogram (up 25.9%), the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was 5.46 yuan/gram (up 11.4%), the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 634 yuan/kilogram (down 0.7%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 84.18 (up 0.3%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 88.61 (up 2.2%), AU2512 - 2510 was 1.98 yuan/gram (down 8.3%), and AG2512 - 2510 was 21 yuan/kilogram (up 5.0%) [3]. Position Data - As of July 22, 2025 (weekly data), compared with July 28, on July 29, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 956.23 tons, the silver ETF - SLV rose 0.09% to 15173.91673 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold rose 15.44% to 311949 contracts, the non - commercial short positions rose 3.15% to 58911 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions rose 18.73% to 253038 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver rose 0.77% to 85678 contracts, the non - commercial short positions fell 2.02% to 25058 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions rose 1.97% to 60620 contracts [3]. Inventory Data - On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, SHFE gold inventory rose 7.03% to 33462 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory rose 0.27% to 1208094 kilograms, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.35% to 38166532 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory rose 0.12% to 502296559 ounces [3]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - On July 30, 2025, compared with July 29, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate fell 0.10% to 7.14, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 98.92, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.28% to 3.86%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1.81% to 4.34%, the VIX rose 6.32% to 15.98, the S&P 500 fell 0.30% to 6370.86, and NYMEX crude oil rose 3.39% to 69.25 [3]. Important News - Sino - US economic and trade talks are held in Stockholm, Sweden, and both sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Q2 GDP increased 1.4% year - on - year, higher than the expected 1.2% [3]. - The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, the largest increase since March, exceeding the market expectation of 75,000 [3]. - Trump said that India will pay 25% tariffs and fines starting from August 1st due to its procurement from Russia [3]. - The preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the US Q2 real GDP was 3.6%, higher than the expected 2.4%; the preliminary annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3%; the preliminary rate of real personal consumption expenditure was 1.4%, lower than the expected 1.5% [3]. - The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% for the third consecutive time, in line with market expectations [3].