Dongguan Securities·2025-07-31 06:41Group 1 - The engineering machinery sector showed a 12.29% increase in H1 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 8.97% [13][15] - The sector's five-year PE TTM is 18.66, slightly below the average of 19.73, indicating a valuation at the 40.39 percentile over the past five years [15] - In Q1 2025, the sector's revenue and net profit reached 964.40 billion and 94.78 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.62% and 31.15% [17][19] Group 2 - Domestic sales of excavators in June 2025 reached 8,136 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.20%, supported by infrastructure investments and equipment replacement policies [40][44] - The cumulative sales of excavators in H1 2025 were 120,520 units, reflecting a 16.77% year-on-year growth [40][44] - The construction machinery sector is expected to benefit from significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which has a total investment of approximately 1,200 billion [50][53] Group 3 - Excavator exports in June 2025 totaled 10,668 units, marking a 19.30% year-on-year increase, with the U.S. being a major market [54][59] - The total export value of excavators in H1 2025 was approximately 4.89 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.83% [57][59] - The average export price for excavators to the U.S. was around 6,400 USD per unit, indicating a demand for smaller, general-purpose equipment [59][62] Group 4 - The penetration rate of electric machinery is increasing, with policies from the government aimed at phasing out older equipment and promoting the transition to new energy [67][71] - The electric machinery market is expected to grow significantly, with electric forklifts and loaders showing high penetration rates of 53.52% and 12.78% respectively [71][75] - The overall electric machinery penetration rate in China is projected to reach approximately 29.60% by 2024 [71][72] Group 5 - The investment recommendation maintains a "market perform" rating, with a focus on companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Hengli Hydraulic [84]