Guotai Junan Securities·2025-07-31 06:41Group 1: US Stock Market Strategy - Recent US stock market performance is strong, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq frequently hitting historical highs[1] - As of July 24, the S&P 500 index has increased by 1.3% and the Nasdaq 100 index by 1.7% over the last 10 trading days[1] - Over 84.6% of S&P 500 companies reported net profits exceeding Wall Street expectations during Q2 earnings season[1] - Google announced a significant capital investment increase to $85 billion by 2025, surpassing earlier market expectations[1] Group 2: Trade and Economic Factors - Positive developments in US trade negotiations have boosted market sentiment, with agreements reached with the Philippines, Indonesia, and Japan[1] - The US has reduced tariffs on Japan from 25% to 15%, and is nearing a trade agreement with the EU[1] - Market optimism is rising as concerns over significant tariff increases diminish, enhancing risk appetite among investors[1] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The US stock market is expected to experience short-term upward momentum, particularly in AI technology sectors[1] - If tariff impacts are limited, the Federal Reserve may further lower interest rates, providing additional support for stock market growth[1] - However, potential inflation issues and corporate earnings downgrades could lead to market volatility in the latter half of the year[1]