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定调偏积极,市场有望在震荡整固中夯实上行
Dongguan Securities·2025-07-31 06:54

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30, 2025, set a positive tone for the economy, with a projected GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, easing the difficulty of achieving the annual growth target of 5% [4][14] - The meeting emphasized the need for continuous and timely macroeconomic policy support, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to promote domestic and international dual circulation [4][14] - The report suggests that macroeconomic policies will prioritize the implementation of existing fiscal measures and enhance the efficiency of fund utilization, particularly through government bond issuance [4][14] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining ample liquidity in monetary policy to lower the comprehensive financing costs for society, utilizing various structural monetary policy tools to support technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [5][14] - It is anticipated that there will be room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year, given the current weak price trends and the need to boost domestic demand [5][14] Group 3: Consumption and Investment - In terms of consumption, the report noted a 5% year-on-year increase in retail sales of consumer goods from January to June 2025, driven by policies promoting the replacement of old goods [8][14] - The meeting called for effective measures to unleash domestic demand potential and expand effective investment, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which saw a 7.5% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025 [9][14] - Infrastructure investment is expected to increase, supporting economic stability and employment through project implementation [9][14] Group 4: Foreign Trade and Technology Innovation - The meeting emphasized the need to support foreign trade enterprises affected by external shocks, enhance financing support, and optimize export tax rebate policies [9][14] - It was also noted that technology innovation should lead the development of new productive forces, with a focus on cultivating internationally competitive emerging pillar industries [10][14] Group 5: Real Estate and Capital Markets - The report indicated that the real estate sector will focus on urban renewal as a new growth engine, with expectations for increased demand due to accelerated urban renewal and old community renovations [11][14] - The meeting stressed the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of domestic capital markets, with policies aimed at stabilizing and activating the market [12][14]