2025年7月中央政治局会议点评：宏观政策的新判断、新动向

Economic Assessment - The meeting acknowledged the achievements of the first half of 2025, stating that "high-quality development has made new progress" and "major economic indicators performed well" [2] - Compared to the April meeting, the phrase "external shocks have increased" was removed, reflecting a more optimistic outlook due to positive signals from US-China trade negotiations and resilient exports [2] Macro Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized that "macroeconomic policies should continue to exert force and increase strength as appropriate," indicating a shift from the previous urgency for more aggressive policies [2] - The focus has shifted from "making good use of policies" to "implementing and refining policies," suggesting recognition of the current fiscal and monetary policy effectiveness [2] - The meeting reiterated the importance of "supporting major economic provinces to play a leading role" [2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting stressed the need to "effectively release domestic demand potential" and proposed "in-depth implementation of special actions to boost consumption" [2] - A total of 2.49 billion yuan in special treasury bonds has been allocated to support consumption upgrades this year, with 690 million yuan remaining to be distributed in October [2] Industry and Innovation Policies - The focus has shifted from emphasizing new productive forces and technological innovation to "governing disorderly competition among enterprises" and "regulating local investment attraction behavior" [2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of "employment-first policy orientation," particularly concerning capacity governance and employment issues [2] Risk Prevention - In the real estate sector, the meeting only mentioned "high-quality urban renewal," omitting previous discussions on new real estate development models and market stabilization [2] - The emphasis on "strictly prohibiting new hidden debts" and effectively advancing the cleanup of local financing platforms was reiterated [2]