Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Hold" due to the slowdown in the education business growth [7] Core Views - The company's 4QFY25 revenue reached $1.243 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, with the education business (including cultural tourism) generating $1.083 billion, up 18.7%. Other businesses, primarily Oriental Selection, saw a revenue decline of 28.5% [4] - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to return at least 50% of adjusted net profit to shareholders through dividends or buybacks [4] - The study predicts that the growth rate of the study abroad examination training and consulting business will gradually bottom out, with 4QFY25 revenue of $315 million, a year-on-year increase of 11%, but a slowdown compared to the previous year [5] - New business segments, including K9 competency training and learning machine services, showed strong growth, with 4Q revenue increasing by 32.5% to $307 million [5] - The report anticipates a continued improvement in operating profit margins, with Non-GAAP operating profit margin expanding by approximately 4.1 percentage points to 6.5% in 4Q [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - FY24A revenue was $4.314 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 43.89%. FY25A revenue is projected at $4.9 billion, with a growth rate of 13.60% [8] - The adjusted net profit for FY24A was $464 million, with a year-on-year growth of 79.20%. For FY25A, the adjusted net profit is expected to be $517 million, a growth of 11.40% [8] - The report revises FY26 and FY27 revenue forecasts to $5.28 billion and $5.79 billion, respectively, down from previous estimates of $5.8 billion and $7.03 billion [7] - The DCF target price is adjusted to $53.4, corresponding to a target price of HKD 41.9 per share, with a PE ratio of 15.6x for FY26 [7]
新东方-S（09901）：教育业务增长承压，常态化派息提升股东回报