Key Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery while addressing prominent issues such as boosting consumption and breaking the cycle of internal competition, which is crucial for promoting domestic and international dual circulation [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of accelerating the cultivation of emerging pillar industries and advancing high-quality urban renewal, avoiding the old path of debt-driven growth [2][3] - The upcoming 14th Central Committee meeting in October will focus on drafting the 15th Five-Year Plan, which is seen as pivotal for achieving the long-term goal of socialist modernization [2][11] Macroeconomic Analysis - The meeting acknowledged the strong performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with GDP growth reaching 5.3%, and emphasized the need for a bottom-line thinking approach to safeguard employment and livelihoods [3][4] - The macroeconomic policy is set to maintain continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, indicating that supportive policies will continue to be implemented [13][20] - The focus on fiscal policy will be on timely and effective implementation, with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of fund usage and accelerating the issuance of government bonds [4][19] Real Estate Sector - The importance of urban renewal was reiterated, with a focus on high-quality implementation in line with the Central Urban Work Conference's spirit [26][28] - The transition of urbanization from rapid growth to stable development is expected to enhance the role of urban renewal as a key driver for improving living conditions and urban quality [27][28] - The potential for city renovation projects, particularly in urban villages and dilapidated housing, is anticipated to stimulate housing demand and improve the overall real estate market [27][28] Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to experience a gradual rise amid increasing volatility, driven by favorable policies, moderate economic recovery, and the upcoming mid-year performance reports [31][32] - Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors such as technology, consumption, and cyclical stocks, particularly those with strong value propositions [31][32] - The emphasis on new quality productivity and the potential for structural reforms in the economy are seen as key areas for investment opportunities [31][32]
银河证券晨会报告-20250731