沪铜期货周报-20250731

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Shanghai Copper Futures - Report Period: July 21 - July 25, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Shanghai copper futures increased compared to last week. The domestic "anti - involution" policy expectation and the overseas tariff implementation formed a long - short hedge, intensifying market sentiment fluctuations. The price rose and then fell, inventory differentiation intensified, and the global visible inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 49.9 million tons, showing hidden surplus pressure. Terminal consumption was suppressed by high - temperature and rainy weather, and the spot discount widened to - 65 yuan/ton. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate within a range [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price - The price of Shanghai copper futures rose and then fell this week. As of Friday's close, the main contract 2509 rose 810 yuan/ton to 79,250 yuan/ton, a gain of + 1.03%. The highest price was 80,140 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 78,530 yuan/ton. The position was about 181,000 lots, an increase of about 39,000 lots compared to last week. The trading volume doubled, indicating high market activity [3]. 1.2 Variety Market - In the weekly market of Shanghai copper futures, the price of the 2510 contract was the highest, and all contracts had gains. The overall contract price difference narrowed. The price of the 2602 contract was the lowest, 120 yuan/ton lower than the main contract, and the price difference was relatively stable [6]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Market Conditions - The weekly average price of Shanghai 0 electrolytic copper was 79,450 yuan/ton, a 1.07% increase from last week, but the discount widened to - 65 yuan/ton, highlighting the spot liquidity pressure. In the Guangdong and Tianjin markets, the discounts also weakened (Guangdong - 80 yuan/ton, Tianjin - 105 yuan/ton), and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [7]. 2.2 Downstream Demand - For cables, the State Grid's tender was delayed, the enterprise's operating rate decreased by 2.1% month - on - month, and the inventory of refined copper rod enterprises increased to 15 days. In the new energy sector, the copper demand for photovoltaic brackets increased by 5% month - on - month, but the monthly increase was only 0.6 million tons, which was difficult to offset the decline in the real estate chain [7]. 2.3 Basis Data - The Shanghai spot premium/discount decreased from + 20 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton this week. The weakening basis reflected the pressure on the spot market [7]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Latest News - Fed policy: The US CPI in June increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the expectation of interest rate cuts was postponed to September. The US dollar index rebounded to 102.5, suppressing the financial attribute of copper prices. Domestic policy: The "anti - involution" policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology boosted market sentiment, but the lag in the arrival of power grid investment funds restricted the release of demand. Mine - end disturbances: The OB mine in Chile reduced production due to tailings failure, and the domestic spot TC stabilized at - 43 US dollars/ton, intensifying the inversion of smelter profits. Traditional sectors dragged down: The air - conditioning production plan decreased by 10% month - on - month, the power grid investment growth rate slowed down to 19.8%, and the infrastructure capital arrival rate was low [8]. 4. Market Outlook - In the short term, copper prices may fluctuate weakly. Due to the pressure of spot inventory accumulation and the risk - aversion sentiment before the implementation of tariff policies, copper prices may test the support level. In the medium term, there are potential rebound opportunities. If the mine - end disturbances exceed expectations or the new energy demand explodes, it may trigger a phased rebound [9].