宏观数据观察：东海观察7月PMI数据低于预期，经济景气有所下降

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In July, due to entering the traditional production off - season and factors like high - temperature, rainstorm and flood disasters in some areas, the business activities of enterprises slowed down. The three major PMIs declined but remained above the critical point, and the overall economic output in China continued to expand. However, demand was weak in the short - term, and production and price trends were complex. The export's role in driving the economy was expected to weaken in the second half of the year [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Economic Situation - China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3% (expected 49.7%, previous value 49.7%); non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1% (expected 50.2%, previous value 50.5%); comprehensive PMI was 50.2% (previous value 50.7%). The three major indexes all declined, indicating a slowdown in economic prosperity, but the overall economic output remained in the expansion range [1]. 3.2 Investment - Real estate investment remained weak. Although sales and capital sources improved, investment - side policies were restricted. Infrastructure investment slowed down due to factors like high - temperature and flood disasters affecting construction progress, despite accelerated special bond issuance. Manufacturing investment slowed down but continued to grow at a high speed, and short - term restocking motivation of manufacturing enterprises declined [2]. 3.3 Consumption - The growth rate of consumption slowed down, but its driving effect on the economy remained strong [2]. 3.4 Export - Exports maintained resilience due to the mitigation of external shocks, but as the US restocking demand weakened in the future, export growth might slow down, and its driving effect on the economy was expected to weaken in the second half of the year [2]. 3.5 Manufacturing - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. New order index and production index both declined, indicating a slowdown in market demand and a continued but decelerated expansion in production. New export order index declined, showing a slowdown in external demand, while import demand rebounded. Price indexes rebounded, and both finished - product and raw - material inventory indexes declined [3][4]. 3.6 Non - manufacturing - The non - manufacturing business activity index in July was 50.1%, still above the critical point. The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down. Some service - related industries were in a high - level prosperity range, while real estate and other industries had weak prosperity. The construction industry business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points. Most service enterprises were optimistic about the market, while the construction industry's market expectation declined [5]. 3.7 Comprehensive - The comprehensive PMI output index in July was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that overall business activities of enterprises in China continued to expand but at a slower pace [6].