国际宏观资讯双周报-20250731

Economic Insights - The Bank of Korea lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, the lowest since August 2022, amid a significant downgrade of GDP growth forecast from 1.5% to 0.8% for 2025[10] - Canada's GDP grew by 2.2% in Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations and driven by strong exports, particularly in the mining and financial sectors[14] - Mexico's central bank drastically cut its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.1%, down from 0.6%, citing domestic economic weakness and uncertainties from U.S. trade policies[15] Financial Developments - South Africa's budget update revealed a projected GDP growth of only 1.4% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 1.8%, with debt-to-GDP ratio expected to peak at 77.4%[26] - Saudi Arabia issued $16 billion in Islamic bonds, with its holdings of U.S. Treasury securities rising to $131.6 billion as of March 2025[28] - Egypt's central bank cut interest rates by 100 basis points, indicating a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy as inflation pressures ease[21] Political and Social Context - Italy's Prime Minister Meloni reached a preliminary agreement with the EU to reduce the fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP by 2027, focusing on public spending cuts and tax compliance[31] - The Philippines' midterm election results showed President Marcos' coalition winning 6 out of 12 contested Senate seats, impacting future political dynamics[37] - Turkey's President Erdogan announced a "Family Decade" initiative to address declining birth rates, emphasizing traditional family values[53]