美国二季度GDP超出预期，联储降息仍需等待

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [2] Report's Core View - The US GDP in Q2 exceeded expectations, with the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value at 3%, higher than the expected 2.4%. The inflation level declined, and the Fed's rate - cut decision still needs time. Although the economy is cooling moderately, the market's expectation of a soft landing is hard to break. The dollar index is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term, the US Treasury yield will rise again, gold will continue to correct, and the US stock market will perform strongly. However, attention should be paid to the increased market volatility caused by the worse - than - expected economic downturn [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US Q2 GDP Exceeded Expectations - GDP Data: The annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value of the US Q2 GDP was 3%, higher than the expected 2.4% and a significant rebound from - 0.5% in the previous quarter. Import growth dropped sharply to - 30.3%, export growth slightly declined to - 1.8%, consumption growth was 1.4%, private investment growth was - 15.6%, and government spending growth was 0.4%. Net exports contributed the most to the growth. The core PCE price index in Q1 fell from 3.5% to 2.5%, slightly higher than expected [3][9] - Contribution to GDP Growth: Consumption, fixed investment, inventory, net exports, and government spending contributed 0.98%, 0.08%, - 3.17%, 4.99%, and 0.08% respectively to the 3% GDP growth [3][18] - Personal Consumption: Both goods and services consumption showed a slight recovery. Goods consumption growth rose from 0.1% in Q1 to 2.2%, with durable and non - durable goods growing by 3.7% and 1.3% respectively. Service consumption remained resilient, with only housing and transportation sub - items declining. Overall, Q2 consumer spending recovered slightly, but the growth rate was lower than last year [26] - Private Investment: In Q1, private investment dropped by 15.6% on an annualized quarterly - on - quarterly basis. Fixed investment growth was 0.4%, with residential and construction investment growth being negative. Equipment investment growth dropped to 4.8%, and enterprises began to reduce inventory [26] - Government Spending: The growth rate of government spending in Q2 rebounded to 0.4%. It is expected that the government spending will support the US economy in the second half of the year, with the planned bond issuance exceeding $1 trillion in Q3 and net borrowing of $590 billion in Q4 [28] - Inflation: The inflation level declined in Q2. The GDP deflator dropped to 2%, the PCE price index fell from 3.7% to 2.1%, and the core PCE rebounded marginally from 3.5% to 2.5%. The impact of tariffs on inflation has not been fully reflected [28] - Economic Outlook: Tariff disruptions to the real economy are easing, and the US economy remains resilient. As trade policy uncertainty decreases, corporate investment may recover in the second half of the year. The economic growth slightly exceeded expectations, giving the Fed no strong reason to cut rates. The probability of a rate cut in September dropped to 58.8%, and the future rate - cut path remains uncertain [4][31] 2. Investment Recommendations - The US has accelerated trade negotiations, reaching agreements with countries such as Japan and the EU before August 1st, with a 15% tariff level lower than previously threatened. The tariff suspension for China has been extended for another 90 days, keeping market risk appetite high. The Q2 GDP shows that the US economy is cooling moderately. The dollar index is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term, the US Treasury yield will rise again, gold will continue to correct, and the US stock market will perform strongly. However, attention should be paid to the increased market volatility caused by the worse - than - expected economic downturn [5][32]