方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: The raw sugar futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate. In the domestic market, the spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the futures price is under pressure from imports. The 09 contract has significantly reduced positions, and the funds have moved to the 2601 contract, with the futures price continuing to fluctuate within a range [3]. - Pulp: After the exchange introduced policies, the market's exuberant sentiment cooled down. The fundamentals of the pulp and paper - making industry chain have changed little, and the futures price may adjust following the market sentiment. It is recommended to short - allocate lightly [4]. - Cotton: The external market has pressure on the price, while the domestic market is in a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The short - term futures price may decline slightly, and it is recommended to close long positions [5][6]. - Apples: The futures price fluctuates within a range. The "anti - involution" sentiment has limited impact, and the fundamentals of the old and new seasons cannot provide clear trend guidance [7]. - Jujubes: The futures price is affected by emotions and shows a wide - range shock. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 2601 contract and pay attention to the weather during the fruit - setting period [8]. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures: For Apple 2510, it is recommended to short on rallies, with a support range of 7300 - 7400 and a pressure range of 8200 - 8300. For Jujube 2601, it is recommended to hold long positions, with a support range of 10200 - 10400 and a pressure range of 10500 - 11500 [16]. - Soft Commodity Futures: For Sugar 2509, short - term band trading is recommended, with a support range of 5740 - 5760 and a pressure range of 5880 - 5900. For Pulp 2507, it is recommended to short - allocate lightly, with a support range of 5200 - 5250 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5600. For Cotton 2509, it is recommended to close long positions, with a support range of 13200 - 13300 and a pressure range of 14400 - 14500 [16]. Part II: Market News Changes Apple Market - Fundamentals: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 3.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 tons. As of July 17, it was 73.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.03 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production, with slight increases or decreases [17]. - Spot Market: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable, and the trading volume is average. In the Shaanxi production area, early - maturing apples are on the market, and the coloration is average. The wholesale market has stable shipments and prices [18]. Jujube Market - As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons. The price of good - quality jujubes in the Hebei market has increased, and the sales speed has accelerated, while the price in the Guangdong market is stable [19]. Sugar Market - India announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for August 2025 is 225 tons, an increase of 5 tons compared with July and the same period last year. The spot price in the domestic market is stable [19]. Pulp Market - Due to the rebound of the pulp futures price on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the purchasing enthusiasm for imported bleached softwood pulp has increased, and the price tends to be stable. The price of imported bleached hardwood pulp has stabilized, and the domestic spot price has increased slightly. The order price of South American bleached hardwood pulp in July has decreased by $10/ton compared with June [22][24]. Cotton Market - In June 2025, the yarn production of large - scale enterprises was 206.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.84%. The cloth production was 2.78 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% and a month - on - month increase of 4.12%. As of July 28, the cotton flowering rate in Xinjiang was about 94.3%, with an increase in the number of bolls [25][26]. Part III: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 7915 | 7 | 0.09% | | Jujube 2509 | 9640 | - 40 | - 0.41% | | Sugar 2509 | 5804 | - 63 | - 1.07% | | Pulp 2509 | 5326 | - 48 | - 0.89% | | Cotton 2509 | 13755 | - 170 | - 1.22% | [26] Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | - 0.25 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 6050 | 0 | - 500 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5950 | 0 | - 150 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15470 | - 110 | 24 | [33] Part IV: Basis Situation No specific content provided in the summary. Part V: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 100 | - 16 | 43 | Fluctuating | Wait - and - see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 1165 | - 1110 | - 935 | Range - bound | Wait - and - see | | Sugar | 9 - 1 | 138 | 2 | - 190 | Weak in the range | Long 01, short 09 | [49] Part VI: Futures Positioning Situation No specific content provided in the summary. Part VII: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8739 | 0 | - 2447 | | Sugar | 19520 | - 226 | 3404 | | Pulp | 254977 | - 122 | - 247037 | | Cotton | 9055 | - 101 | - 2385 | [72] Part VIII: Option - related Data No specific content provided in the summary.