Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The non - US copper market's inventory is low, and the domestic copper inventory is falling, supporting copper prices. However, the demand lacks upward drive, and the price is expected to have low volatility. For zinc, it has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak. The aluminum industry chain is bearish, and short - selling is recommended. Tin has a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - selling positions can be reduced. Lead's price fluctuates in a range, and medium - term bullishness can be considered. Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak situation, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [4][5][6][7][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous sector fluctuates with the domestic anti - involution profit - taking. The trade negotiation has reached many phased agreements, and the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate decision and domestic policies. The non - ferrous market is in shock, and attention should be paid to the possible adverse impact of the trade situation and tariff increase [12][13] - Investment Suggestions for Each Metal: - Copper: The COMEX copper premium may decline. The non - US market's inventory is low, and the domestic inventory is falling, supporting the price. The demand lacks upward drive, and the price is expected to have low volatility. The upper pressure range is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips [4][14] - Zinc: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak. The upper pressure range is 22,800 - 23,100 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 21,600 - 21,800 yuan/ton. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [5][14] - Aluminum Industry Chain: The market sentiment is weak, and short - selling is recommended. The upper pressure and lower support ranges are provided for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [6][15] - Tin: The supply and demand are both weak, and short - selling positions can be reduced. The upper pressure range is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 250,000 - 255,000 yuan/ton [7][15] - Lead: The price fluctuates in a range, and medium - term bullishness can be considered. The lower support range is 16,600 - 16,800 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure range is 17,200 - 17,400 yuan/ton [8][16] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The upper pressure and lower support ranges are provided, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9][16] Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Futures Closing Situation: The closing prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are provided [17] Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metal sector is presented, including the price change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties [19] Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy are provided [20][22] Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Copper: Graphs related to copper inventory, copper concentrate refining fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper price are presented [26][27] - Zinc: Graphs related to zinc inventory, zinc concentrate processing fees, zinc spot market price, and galvanized sheet production seasonality are presented [29] - Aluminum: Graphs related to the relationship between aluminum inventory and price, LME aluminum inventory and price, and aluminum spot premium are presented [31][32] - Alumina: Graphs related to alumina spot price trend and alumina port inventory change are presented [37] - Tin: Graphs related to tin price and spot premium, tin inventory, and tin concentrate processing fees are presented [39][44] - Lead: Graphs related to lead concentrate processing fees, lead futures inventory, LME lead premium, and lead spot price are presented [47][48] - Nickel: Graphs related to nickel futures inventory, LME nickel inventory, refined nickel spot premium, and LME nickel premium are presented [51][53] - Stainless Steel: Graphs related to stainless steel futures inventory and stainless steel spot price are presented [57][58] Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Copper: Graphs related to the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the premium between Shanghai copper and London copper are presented [59] - Zinc: Graphs related to the zinc Shanghai - London ratio change and LME zinc spot premium are presented [61] - Aluminum and Alumina: Graphs related to aluminum basis, aluminum Shanghai - London ratio, the difference between Shanghai aluminum contracts, and the difference between alumina contracts are presented [64][67] - Tin: Graphs related to tin basis, the difference between tin contracts, and the tin Shanghai - London ratio are presented [67][69] - Lead: Graphs related to the difference between Shanghai zinc and Shanghai lead, and the lead Shanghai - London ratio are presented [70] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Graphs related to the nickel Shanghai - London ratio, the ratio of nickel to stainless steel, and the difference between nickel contracts are presented [73][74] Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Copper: Graphs related to copper option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and the ratio of call to put positions are presented [76] - Zinc: Graphs related to zinc historical volatility, zinc option weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and the ratio of call to put positions are presented [78][79] - Aluminum: Graphs related to aluminum option trading volume, the ratio of call to put positions, historical volatility, and implied volatility are presented [81][83]
方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250731
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo·2025-07-31 08:59