方正中期期货新能源产业链日度策略-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment of lithium carbonate has significantly receded, but it rebounded after approaching the 70,000 RMB mark, indicating that downstream buyers have a stronger willingness to stock up at low prices. However, there are concerns about weakening demand in the medium to long term [4][5]. - For industrial silicon, the market is driven by news, with increased volatility. Before the implementation of supply - side reform measures, the market may continue to speculate on policy expectations [6]. - In the case of polysilicon, short - term speculative sentiment is high, but the weakening terminal demand and high enterprise inventories will create selling pressure. The full - cost line provides strong support, and the market may still speculate on policy expectations before supply - side reform measures are introduced [7][8]. Summary by Directory Part One: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - Lithium Carbonate 09: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The support level is 65,000 - 66,000 RMB, and the pressure level is 78,000 - 83,000 RMB. Sellers are advised to seize hedging opportunities, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price inventory replenishment [13]. - Industrial Silicon 09: It will have two - way fluctuations. The support level is 8,500 - 8,600 RMB, and the pressure level is 9,900 - 10,000 RMB. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. - Polysilicon 09: It will have two - way fluctuations. The support level is 45,000 - 46,000 RMB, and the pressure level is 55,000 - 56,000 RMB. It is recommended to reduce long positions [13]. 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lithium Carbonate | 70,600 RMB | - 0.34% | 792,909 | 272,753 | - 27,867 | 13,131 | | Industrial Silicon | 9,285 RMB | - 0.70% | 605,161 | 242,677 | - 34,057 | 49,846 | | Polysilicon | 54,705 RMB | 8.87% | 565,243 | 164,490 | 23,852 | 3,070 | [13] Part Two: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a decrease of 485 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous week, reaching a new high. The weekly apparent demand was 18,080 tons, a phased high. The inventory - to - use days were relatively stable at 55.4 days [4]. - Downstream: As the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles exceeds 50%, the growth rate of new - energy vehicle demand is gradually declining. The production and sales growth rate in August is expected to decline further, and the production and sales volume in the fourth quarter may be flat or even lower than the same period last year [4]. 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: The resumption of production by manufacturers has accelerated due to the recovery of profits. The production is expected to continue to increase. The inventory has decreased in the short term due to improved sales, but the follow - up sales and production cuts need to be monitored [6]. - Downstream: No specific content provided. 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory: Short - term speculative sentiment is high, and the fundamental drivers are temporarily ineffective. High inventories and weak terminal demand will create selling pressure, while the full - cost line provides support [7][8]. - Downstream: No specific content provided.