养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Oil: The intraday soybean oil opened higher and strengthened, mainly due to the rise in crude oil and the positive fundamentals of soybean oil itself. There has been no significant progress in the Sino - US economic and trade talks regarding soybeans, and there is no driving force for import purchases. There are reports of about one million tons of soybean oil exports from China, and fewer oilseed purchases in the fourth quarter, along with an increase in the direct import of protein meal, which is expected to narrow the oil mill's profit, thus benefiting the price of oils. Long positions in the soybean oil 2601 contract should be held. The resistance level of the soybean oil 01 contract is around 8400 - 8450, and the support level is around 8000 - 8030 yuan/ton [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: Since July, the procurement and arrival of rapeseed in China have decreased, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has declined from its peak, but it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. The improvement in Sino - Australian trade relations may lead to an increase in rapeseed procurement from Australia, but the potential new imports may be reflected in the new crop, having a relatively limited impact on the 09 contract. There are fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Long positions should be held, with the support at 9300 - 9330 and the resistance at 9780 - 9790. The long position in the oil - meal ratio should continue to be held [3]. - Palm Oil: High - frequency data shows good palm oil production in Malaysia, but the export demand in the first 25 days of July has weakened month - on - month, increasing the inventory pressure in July and weakening the upward momentum of the futures price. The palm oil production in Indonesia is lower than expected, and the inventory is at a low level. The US biodiesel policy is beneficial to the long - term demand for US soybean oil. From the perspective of the international soybean - palm oil price difference, palm oil is cost - effective, and there is restocking demand in India and China. Low - level buying is recommended, with the support at 8704 - 8796 and the resistance at 9480 - 9490 [4]. - Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2: There has been no significant progress in the Sino - US economic and trade talks regarding soybeans, and there is no driving force for import purchases. The good rate of US soybeans has recovered, and the main production areas have favorable weather. The direct import expectation of soybean meal has increased, reducing the crushing consumption of bean No. 2. The short - term outlook for soybean meal is bottom - building, and it is recommended to wait and see. The bean No. 2 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Rapeseed meal shows a situation of both weak supply and demand. The supply reduction is more obvious, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the third quarter. Low - level buying can be considered. Pay attention to the Sino - Australian and Sino - Canadian trade relations. Light long positions should be held, and the long position in the oil - meal ratio should be closed [5]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The futures prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate on Wednesday. The external market fundamentals have not changed much, and the new - season US corn planting area has increased year - on - year, exerting pressure. In the domestic market, there is a contradiction between the release of old - crop grains and the tightening supply in some areas. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. For the corn 09 contract, the support range is 2250 - 2260, and the resistance range is 2430 - 2450. For the corn starch 09 contract, the support range is 2600 - 2620, and the resistance range is 2830 - 2840 [6]. - Soybean No. 1: The price of soybean No. 1 temporarily stopped falling and rebounded intraday. The supply of new domestic soybeans is gradually increasing, suppressing the price of domestic soybeans. It is recommended to wait and see. The 09 contract should pay attention to the key resistance level in the range of 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton and the support level in the range of 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - Peanuts: The expected carry - over inventory of old - crop peanuts is low, and the arrival of imported peanuts is scarce. The new - season peanut planting area has increased year - on - year, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest. It is recommended to partially close short positions near the support level. The support for the 10 contract is 8004 - 8020, and the resistance is 8392 - 8398 [7]. - Hogs: The futures price of hogs fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. The spot price of hogs tends to rise seasonally in August. It is recommended to close long positions in the 09 contract on rallies or transfer positions to the 2511 contract. In the medium term, wait for the market to cool down and the spot price to catch up before buying the 2511 contract on dips [8]. - Eggs: The 08 futures price of eggs continued to fall back to the spot price on Wednesday, and the 09 contract fluctuated narrowly. The egg price is expected to seasonally rebound. It is recommended not to short aggressively. Pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage between the 9 - 1 contracts, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract on dips, with the reference range of 3500 - 3800 points [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Oilseeds: Soybean No. 1 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Soybean No. 2 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see; Peanut 10 is expected to be weakly fluctuating, and short positions should be partially closed [12]. - Oils: Soybean oil 01 is expected to rise, and long positions should be held; Rapeseed oil 09 is expected to be strongly fluctuating, and long positions should be held; Palm 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and low - level buying is recommended [12]. - Protein: Soybean meal 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Rapeseed meal 09 is expected to be strongly fluctuating, and light long positions should be held [12]. - Energy and By - products: Corn 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and short positions should be reduced on dips; Corn starch 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and short positions should be reduced on dips [12]. - Livestock Farming: Hog 09 is expected to rebound fluctuatingly, and long positions should be reduced on rallies; Egg 09 is expected to find the bottom fluctuatingly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [12]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Oilseeds: For the spreads of Soybean No. 1 9 - 1, Soybean No. 2 9 - 1, and Peanut 10 - 11, it is recommended to wait and see [13][14]. - Oils: For the spreads of Soybean oil 9 - 1, Rapeseed oil 9 - 1, and Palm oil 9 - 1, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 09 Soybean oil - Palm oil spread, short - side operation is recommended; for the 09 Rapeseed oil - Soybean oil spread, long - side operation is recommended; for the 09 Rapeseed oil - Palm oil spread, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Protein: For the Soybean meal 11 - 1 spread, positive spread arbitrage is recommended; for the Rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread, it is recommended to wait and see. The 09 Soybean meal - Rapeseed meal spread is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14]. - Energy and By - products: For the Corn 9 - 1 and Corn starch 9 - 1 spreads, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 09 Corn starch - Corn spread, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Livestock Farming: For the Hog 9 - 1 spread, positive spread arbitrage on dips is recommended; for the Egg 9 - 1 spread, positive spread arbitrage on dips is recommended [14]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [15]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: The report presents the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping dates, including arrival premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [17][18]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and operating rates of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, such as the port soybean inventory, oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and coastal rapeseed inventory [19]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [19]. - Weekly Data: The weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of deep - processing enterprises, are presented [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - The daily and weekly data of hogs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, price changes, production costs, profits, slaughter data, and inventory data [21][22][23][24][25]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts The report provides various charts to track the fundamentals of the livestock farming end (hogs and eggs), oils and oilseeds (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and feed end (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, soybean meal), such as production, consumption, inventory, and price - related charts [26][36][53]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of historical volatilities and option trading volumes and open interests of related varieties [72][73][78][79]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situations of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils The report provides charts of warehouse receipt situations of related varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, hogs, and eggs [75][77][79].