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2025年7月政治局会议点评:巩固拓展经济回升向好势头
Shanghai Securities·2025-07-31 09:11

Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization and requires a comprehensive effort to build a new development pattern[3] - Despite complex changes in the development environment, the long-term positive support conditions and basic trends remain unchanged[3] Economic Performance - The economy has shown steady progress this year, with high-quality development achieving new results[4] - There is a recognition of existing risks and challenges, with a shift in focus from external shocks to internal economic stability[4] Policy Recommendations - Maintain policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[5] - The government is expected to continue a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, with an emphasis on increasing the efficiency of government bond issuance[6] Domestic Demand and Investment - There is a call to effectively unleash domestic demand potential, particularly through consumption and investment in key projects[7] - Infrastructure investment is expected to be supported by accelerated government bond issuance and project implementation[7] Reform and Opening Up - Emphasis on deepening reforms and expanding high-level opening up, particularly in technology innovation and international competitiveness[9] - The focus is on stabilizing foreign trade and investment, with measures to support affected enterprises[9] Risk Management - Attention to risk prevention in key areas, including real estate market stabilization and local government debt management[10] - The capital market's attractiveness and inclusivity are to be enhanced to support its recovery[10]