棉花产业风险管理日报-20250731

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the rising price center, some high-cost old cotton resources are flowing into the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the far - month. So, the upside of cotton prices is limited. However, before the new cotton is launched, the tight domestic cotton inventory will strongly support cotton prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton during the off - season, and the adjustment of the China - US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0713 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 180 - 220 to collect premiums and lower costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,700 to prevent the rise of procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P13600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 100 - 150 to collect premiums and lower procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Due to high tariffs, this year's cotton imports have dropped significantly, reserve cotton has not been sold, and the de - stocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4245 million tons, and the end - of - year supply is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Also, the post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5] Bearish Factors - Mainland spinning mills have further reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang spinning mills' operation is stable, supporting rigid cotton consumption. Although the downstream finished product inventory has slightly decreased, there is still some pressure. Currently, Xinjiang's new cotton is in the full - bloom and boll - setting stage, with a fast growth progress and good overall growth, so there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year output [8] Futures Price and Spread Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,840, down 65 (-0.47%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, down 75 (-0.54%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,650, down 105 (-0.76%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,710, up 10 (0.05%); Cotton yarn 05 closed at 0, down 20,100 (-100%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,770, down 100 (-0.5%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,825, up 170; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 55, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 95, up 55; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 150, down 50; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,095, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,964, up 122; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 550, down 21 [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,580, down 29 (-0.19%); CCI 2227B was priced at 13,670, down 29 (-0.21%); CCI 2129B was priced at 15,873, down 39 (-0.25%); FCI Index S was priced at 13,930, up 18 (0.13%); FCI Index M was priced at 13,738, up 17 (0.12%); FCI Index L was priced at 13,454, up 17 (0.13%) [11]