贵金属8月报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the precious metals market in August 2025, analyzing the market from aspects of market review, macro - factors, fundamental factors, and provides future outlook and strategy recommendations. It points out that precious metal prices are in high - level oscillations due to the encounter of weak expectations and strong reality [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The report presents the disk trends of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, but no specific review and outlook content is provided [12][13] 3.2 Macro - factors - Trade Negotiations: In July 2025, there were a series of trade negotiation events. Trump announced multiple tariff policies, including plans to impose tariffs on various countries and products such as imports of copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. There were also trade agreements reached between the US and countries like Indonesia, Japan, and the EU. China and the US will continue to promote the extension of relevant tariffs and maintain communication on economic and trade issues [19] - Market Sentiment and Risk Preference: Market panic has fallen to a low level, and the three major US stock indexes have rebounded, indicating a continuous recovery of market risk preference [20] - Employment and Unemployment: The number of new non - farm jobs in the US and the unemployment rate are presented. The unemployment rate has unexpectedly decreased [26] - Inflation: The US CPI has shown a mild rebound, and small categories of goods and services are the main drivers of inflation [32] - Interest Rate Expectations: The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of different interest rate ranges in each Fed meeting from July 2025 to December 2026, reflecting market expectations for interest rate changes [31] 3.3 Fundamental Factors - Gold Supply and Demand: From 2014 - 2025 (forecast), gold supply mainly comes from gold mine production and recycling. Total supply is expected to increase by 3.4% in 2025 compared to 2024. Demand includes gold jewelry manufacturing, consumption, technology, investment, etc. Investment demand is expected to increase by 21.2% in 2025. The overall supply - demand balance shows a certain change trend, and the LBMA gold price has also fluctuated [39] - Silver - related Data: Data on China's silver production, exports, inventories (LBMA, COMEX, SHFE, SGE), and silver - related consumption in the photovoltaic industry (world and China's photovoltaic installation and production forecasts, silver paste consumption in TOPCon batteries, and silver powder production) are presented [46][50][59] - Investment and Position Data: Data on gold and silver ETFs and CFTC positions are provided, reflecting market investment trends [48][64] 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - No specific content on future outlook and strategy recommendations is provided in the given text