宏观动态点评：7月FOMC，鲍威尔鹰派发言打压降息预期

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during the July FOMC meeting[1] - Two Fed governors voted against the decision to keep rates unchanged, marking the first such occurrence since 1993[1] - The Fed's assessment of economic growth was downgraded from "expand at a solid pace" to "moderated," indicating concerns over economic slowdown[1] Interest Rate Expectations - Following the meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to 45%, down from previous expectations[1] - Cumulative rate cut expectations for the year decreased by 7 basis points to 37 basis points[1] - The yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 6 basis points and 2 basis points, reaching 3.94% and 4.37% respectively[1] Economic Indicators - Powell emphasized the robustness of the job market but acknowledged existing downside risks[3] - The second quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, but the overall growth rate for the first half of the year was slower compared to the same period last year[3] - Powell noted that tariffs are contributing to inflation, with companies likely to pass on costs to consumers in the future[3] Future Outlook - The decision on a potential rate cut in September will depend on economic data from July and August, particularly employment figures[4] - There is a possibility of two rate cuts between September and December if economic conditions weaken[4] - Risks include unexpected inflation from tariffs and a faster-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. job market[4]