Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-31 09:28Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The PNBP policy of the Indonesian government restricts the issuance and raises the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia is being released rapidly, and the production has rebounded significantly. Recently, the nickel - iron price has dropped, weakening the raw material cost support [2]. - Steel mills are facing increasing cost - price inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may alleviate the over - supply situation, and stainless - steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - In the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty and export demand pressure, downstream buyers are cautious, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic stainless - steel inventory has entered a destocking cycle, and the inventory decline is accelerating as production cuts continue [2]. - Technically, the positions are decreasing, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price has fallen below the MA10 support. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on stainless steel and short on nickel [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,805 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 23,761 lots, an increase of 6,549 lots; the main contract position is 94,448 lots, a decrease of 8,202 lots [2]. - The stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity is 103,234 tons, unchanged [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The SS main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, down 1,800 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese chromite production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,700 tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30, deciding to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in Beijing in October. The meeting analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work for the second half of the year [2]. - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings. Two voting members support interest - rate cuts, and Powell did not give guidance on a September rate cut [2]. - The US private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average [2].