-美联储那些事儿：美联储7月议息会议：等待看到更多价格传导

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The Fed decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5% in the July 2025 meeting, with some members opposing and supporting a 25BP rate cut [8]. - Powell's stance is hawkish, and he has no pre - set expectations for the September policy decision, which dampens market rate - cut expectations [8]. - The certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed is low. If the unemployment rate remains stable or slightly rises in the next two months, the Fed may keep the rate unchanged to wait for tariff transmission results [9]. - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, the US Treasury yields may rise further. It is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration in the short term [9]. - The US dollar index has rebounded to around 100 points. Short - term dollar short - covering may bring some upward space, and the view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [6][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed Meeting Decision - In the July 2025 meeting, the Fed kept the policy rate at 4.25 - 4.5% unchanged. Members Bowman and Waller voted against and supported a 25BP rate cut this month [8]. Powell's Stance - Powell adheres to data - dependence and has no policy expectations for September, which hits market rate - cut expectations [8]. - In terms of inflation, Powell aims to prevent one - time price increases from turning into continuous inflation, hopes to maintain a moderately restrictive monetary policy, and believes that tariff transmission to prices may be slower than expected [8][10]. - Regarding employment, Powell thinks the job market is relatively stable despite some downward risks [5][10]. - On economic growth, Powell admits that the overall economic growth has slowed down, and large fluctuations in net exports may affect consumer spending, making some signals difficult to interpret. He also believes that although consumer growth has slowed down, consumers' credit conditions are good [5][10]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's press conference, the market lowered the expectation of a September rate cut. Short - term interest rates rose significantly, the US dollar continued to rise, and the US stock market was under pressure. As of 4:30 Beijing time, the 2Y and 10Y US Treasury yields rose by 6.8BP and 2.8BP respectively compared with before the meeting, the US dollar index rose 0.6% to around 100 points, and the S&P 500 fell 0.4% at the close [9]. Outlook for September Fed Meeting - The certainty of a September rate cut by the Fed is not high. If the unemployment rate remains stable or slightly rises in the next two months, the Fed may keep the rate unchanged to wait for longer - term tariff transmission results [9]. Outlook for US Treasury Yields - If inflation does not rise significantly in the next two months, the bond market opportunities will increase in the fourth quarter; if inflation rises significantly, the US Treasury yields may rise further. It is recommended to maintain a relatively short duration in the short term, and the downward revision of the rate - cut expectation provides some allocation opportunities [9]. Outlook for US Dollar Index - After the US - EU trade agreement, the US dollar index has generally risen and has now rebounded to around 100 points. Short - term dollar short - covering may bring some upward space. Without a substantial weakening signal in the US labor market and continuous rate cuts by the Fed, the view that the US dollar index will operate in the 95 - 105 range is maintained [6][9].