Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-31 09:48Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly, demand remains largely unchanged, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,735 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,992 US dollars/ton, down 28 US dollars [3]. - The spread between the 08 - 09 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the position of Shanghai lead was 105,944 lots, an increase of 6,528 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 567 lots, a decrease of 243 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 61,934 tons, an increase of 1,002 tons [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 63,254 tons, an increase of 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 276,375 tons, an increase of 6,025 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,675 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 36.37 US dollars/ton, down 4.57 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 73.81%, an increase of 2.97 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.35 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 US dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 10 US dollars; the global lead ore output was 399.7 kilotons, a decrease of 3.7 kilotons [3]. - The lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, an increase of 2.48 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was - 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons [3]. - The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate was 815.37 yuan/ton; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,158.93 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of lead - acid batteries was 41,450,000 units, down 50 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy was 1,9925 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries was 1,726.56 points, down 33.34 points; the automobile output was 280.86 tons, an increase of 16.66 tons; the new energy vehicle output was 164.7 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Fed Interest Rate Decision: The Fed maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with two members voting against and advocating a rate cut. Powell was hawkish, and market bets on a full - year rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP [3]. - Tariffs: Trump signed an executive order to suspend the minimum tax - free treatment for low - value goods, and announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products from August 1 [3].