Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-31 09:40Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the rainy season brings a good production outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries, and strong production signs in Brazil lead to a supply - surplus expectation, keeping the raw sugar market price under pressure. However, lower - than - expected ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand from countries like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran provide some support, causing short - term low - level fluctuations. Domestically, there is a strong - weak differentiation in internal and external prices. The opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports and the release of import pressure, with a significant year - on - year increase in June's sugar imports, suppresses sugar prices. The demand side, due to hot summer weather, has备货 needs in the food and beverage industry and a seasonal consumption recovery in cold drinks, providing some price support. Overall, the slowdown of the decline in the external market weakens its drag on domestic prices, and the domestic peak demand season supports sugar futures prices. But increased imports and the global supply - surplus expectation limit the upside space, resulting in an overall oscillatory trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5793 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 255,082 lots, down 21,949 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 19,473 sheets, down 47 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 7,075 lots; the total forecast of effective warehouse receipts for sugar is 0 sheets; the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,533 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,585 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 5,761 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 5,828 yuan/ton [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Nanning, it is 6,030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Liuzhou, it is 6,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, up 70,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 billion tons, up 1.1024 billion tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,427 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,375 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 199 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 132 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.94%, down 2.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 7.94%, down 2.17 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.17%, up 1.53 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.08%, up 0.35 percentage points [2]. Industry News - Broker Stonex reports that the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 40.16 million tons, and the sugar - cane crushing volume is expected to be 598.8 million tons. The sugar 2509 contract closed down 0.79%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the production prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries are good, and Brazil shows strong production signs [2].