瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250731

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the corn market, the high-quality rate of US corn remains good, leading to continuous pressure on international corn prices. In the domestic market, the trade inventory in the Northeast production area has dropped to a low level, and the trading activity is poor with little price fluctuation. Wheat has substitution advantages, and import corn auctions and deferred pick - up policies restrict the corn market. The corn futures price has declined again due to the general decline of commodities and remains weak overall [2]. - For the corn starch market, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. The corn starch futures price has been oscillating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2288 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the 9 - 1 month spread is 79 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract is 769,791 lots, up 19,476 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 22,570 lots, up 6,231 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 154,091 lots, down 2,500 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 372 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2660 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the 9 - 11 month spread is 93 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the trading volume of the active contract is 162,157 lots, down 2,989 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 21,587 lots, down 3,822 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots, down 2,573 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 412.5 cents/bushel, up 1.75 cents; the total position is 1,493,670 contracts (weekly), up 23,275 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133,883 contracts (weekly), down 4,426 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2404.02 yuan/ton, down 5.39 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the CIF price of imported corn is 2005.3 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 116.02 yuan/ton, up 18.61 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 20 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 356 yuan/ton (weekly), down 34 yuan [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2440.5 yuan/ton, down 0.67 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 175 yuan/ton (weekly), down 4 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 23 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted annual production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, all unchanged [2]. - Corn planting area forecasts: The predicted annual planting area in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares, all unchanged [2]. - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 26.9 tons (weekly), down 56.9 tons; at northern ports is 304 tons (weekly), down 13 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 400.5 tons (weekly), down 26.5 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 16 tons, down 3 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly output of feed is 2.7621 million tons, up 98,100 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed: The inventory days of sample feed corn is 30.87 days (weekly), down 0.47 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 106.24 tons (weekly), down 3.81 tons [2]. - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 38.63% (weekly), up 0.29%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 51.76% (weekly), up 6.3%; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Hebei is - 48 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - For corn options, the 20 - day historical volatility is 7.55%, up 0.75%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.8%, up 0.31%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.56%, down 1.03%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.56%, down 1.03% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The US will impose a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting from August 1st due to India's high tariffs and non - monetary trade barriers [2]. - The Brazilian Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) predicts that the corn export volume in July 2025 will be 4.18 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and much higher than that in June, but 11.3% lower than that in July last year [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the high - quality rate of US corn is 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% the previous week and higher than 68% in the same period last year [2].